Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
142 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN. FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
TIME CONSTRAINTS FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT TO THE REGION CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL ALSO
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL MAINTAIN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF THE FA INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AND/OR END
FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS THE
REGION AND BEFORE THE NEXT ONE APPROACHES THE AREA.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
LIKELY CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS
OF THE FA. THIS ROUND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUES AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY GET SOME RAIN BUT MOST OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  74  50  68 /  20  20  50  20
HOBART OK         45  73  45  71 /  10  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  49  75 /  10  10  20  10
GAGE OK           38  69  45  68 /  10  30  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     40  67  45  64 /  20  20  80  40
DURANT OK         59  79  56  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...
TO PAULS VALLEY... ARDMORE AND MARIETTA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 8 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL JET AND TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRONG WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL LIKELY YIELD SEVERE STORMS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY... WIND SHEAR... AND LOW
CLOUD BASES WILL AGAIN FAVOR DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
ALSO WITH SOME RISK OF TORNADOES.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY AROUND
FOARD... KNOX...AND BAYLOR COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE RICH FEED OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORMAN FORECAST AREA...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE VERY
STRONG LIFT. ONE CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WILL ARRIVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE DAY...AND MAY EVENTUALLY REACH OTHER PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARBY.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

BURKE/30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ032-042-043-251615-
COAL OK-HUGHES OK-PONTOTOC OK-
1053 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COAL...HUGHES AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES.

AT 1053 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
ALLEN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FITTSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3464 9639 3455 9682 3459 9682 3488 9658
      3490 9654 3488 9651 3492 9649 3513 9610

30

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