Freeze Warning 2, NWS New York, NY

740 
WWUS71 KOKX 272045
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

NYZ078-080-272145-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FR.Y.0005.111028T0600Z-111028T1400Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
445 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. 

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...PRECLUDING FROST.

$$

CTZ010>012-281000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0002.111028T0800Z-111028T1300Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.111028T0600Z-111028T1400Z/
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
445 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...AND
  SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING
  FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF NO MEASURES ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT THEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-281000-
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.111028T0600Z-111028T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
445 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR 
  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. 

* HAZARDS...FREEZE CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING
  FRIDAY. 

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER 
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF NO MEASURES ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT THEM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ071-079-081-281000-
/O.CON.KOKX.FR.Y.0005.111028T0600Z-111028T1400Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
445 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL AND 
  EASTERN LONG ISLAND...AND THE OUTLYING SUBURBS NORTH AND WEST 
  OF NEW YORK CITY. 

* HAZARDS...FROST CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

694 
WWUS71 KOKX 280236
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>008-010>012-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-281400-
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.111028T0600Z-111028T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1036 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR 
  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. 

* HAZARDS...FREEZE CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING 
  FRIDAY. 

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF NO MEASURES ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT THEM.
  ALSO RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY
  FREEZE LATE TONIGHT...CREATING PATCHES OF BLACK ICE. MOTORISTS
  ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND TAKE IT SLOW ON ROADWAYS LATE
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ071-079-081-281400-
/O.CON.KOKX.FR.Y.0005.111028T0600Z-111028T1400Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1036 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL AND 
  EASTERN LONG ISLAND...AND THE OUTLYING SUBURBS NORTH AND WEST 
  OF NEW YORK CITY. 

* HAZARDS...FROST CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT
  UNCOVERED. ALSO RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL
  LIKELY FREEZE LATE TONIGHT...CREATING PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.
  MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND TAKE IT SLOW ON
  ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

289 
WWUS71 KOKX 281108
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...

CTZ005>008-010>012-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-281400-
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-111028T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE 
  LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR 
  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. 

* HAZARDS...FREEZE CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO MID-MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER 
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF NO MEASURES ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT THEM. 
  ALSO RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL LIKELY 
  FREEZE LATE TONIGHT...CREATING PATCHES OF BLACK ICE. MOTORISTS 
  ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND TAKE IT SLOW ON ROADWAYS LATE 
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ071-079-081-281400-
/O.CON.KOKX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111028T1400Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL AND 
  EASTERN LONG ISLAND...AND THE OUTLYING SUBURBS NORTH AND WEST 
  OF NEW YORK CITY. 

* HAZARDS...FROST CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* TIMING...INTO MID-MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. ALSO RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS 
  WILL LIKELY FREEZE LATE TONIGHT...CREATING PATCHES OF BLACK 
  ICE. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND TAKE IT SLOW ON 
  ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

180 
WWUS71 KOKX 281336
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED...


CTZ005>008-010>012-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-281445-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-111028T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
936 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS
MORNING.

$$

CTZ009-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ071-079-081-281445-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111028T1400Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
936 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF FROST NOW OVER.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
248 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT AND IMPACTING THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE AREA ATTM...WHILE STEADY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH WITH APPROACHING SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST IS SLOW TO ARRIVE...STILL MOSTLY BACK OVER NW/CENTRAL
PA...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER ERN PA ON
NOSE OF LLJ IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE. POP ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS
LATER ARRIVAL.

LOWS WERE DERIVED FROM BIAS-ADJUSTED 05Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE...WITH
UPPER 40S INLAND...AND 50-55 NYC METRO/COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN PASS TO THE EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A SECOND STRONGER WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NJ
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SLIDE EAST...DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT AS IT INTENSIFIES. STEADY RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRST WAVE MAY DROP OFF IN INTENSITY FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE 2ND WAVE STARTS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON./EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT AND WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING.
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS NW HILLS...WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST-EAST THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TOTAL QPF THROUGH TONIGHT HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE MORE...FROM
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH AS OPPOSED TO 3/4 TO 1 INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF AT ALL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FREEZING OF RESIDUAL
WATER ON ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. EXISTING FREEZE WATCH
WILL BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING...AND A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR COASTAL SE CT WHERE TEMPS MAY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING BUT WHERE
FCST CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH. FROST ADVYS WILL BE ISSUED S
OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA FOR COASTAL SW CT AND FOR MOST AREAS
JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA OF FRI WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDS.
A COOL NW FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES FRI NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S. A FEW LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND NYC.

ALL EYES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING COASTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 26/12Z NAM KEEP MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE 26/12Z GFS HAS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER LONG ISLAND..AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE 26/12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF. EXPECT POPS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND EASTERN CT....AND LOWEST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. ALSO
THINKING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM EXITS...HOWEVER
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR BOTH DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE LONG ISLAND SOUND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD THIS
MRNG. LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...AND PASS OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT.

VFR AT 5Z. DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE W...SO CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AFT 6Z WITH -RA BEGINNING BY 11Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY. IFR WILL BE FCST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW BREAKS TO MVFR AT TIMES. THE PCPN ENDS THIS EVE FROM NW
TO SE. RASN OR CHANGE TO ALL -SN IS LIKELY AT KSWF...WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY OF MIXING ACROSS KHPN AND CT TERMINALS.

VARIABILITY IN WINDS DIRECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA THIS MRNG. NLY FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTN AS THE LOW OFFSHORE
DEEPENS. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22-04Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...BECOMING SKC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BLW 10KT.

FRI...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NW FLOW.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA.
ATTM THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ARE E OF THE HUDSON
RIVER...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN
OCEAN WATERS...AS NE FLOW STRENGTHENS N OF A STATIONARY FRONT.
THEN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE EAST THU EVENING...N
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND WILL CONVERT EXISTING GALE WATCH TO
WARNING E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET FOR GUSTS 35-40 KT MAINLY BETWEEN
8 PM FRI-2 AM SAT. OCEAN WATERS FARTHER WEST SHOULD SEE ONLY A
BRIEF DURATION OF 35-KT GUSTS...SO WILL CONVERT TO SCA THERE. SCA
FOR ALL OTHER WATERS TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRI...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA WATERS.

THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS SE OF THE WATERS. SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH A WORST CASE
SCENARIO OF NE-N GALES ON THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF A STRONGER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER SCA LEVELS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SRN CT.
SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/2 INCH RAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES UNUSUALLY HIGH AND POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURES OF .30 TO .60 FT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING. IF NE WINDS DEVELOP
QUICKLY ENOUGH THIS MORNING...MINOR WAVE ACTION COULD ACCOMPANY
THE TIDAL SURGE ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL FALL ONLY SLIGHTLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW...WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH AND
COULD LOCALLY TOUCH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS IN A FEW
SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY.

COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RESIDUAL WATER LEVELS
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE FIRST LOW THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND THE
STRENGTH/DURATION OF ANY E-NE FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONGER
LOW PASSES TO THE SE. BASED ON CURRENT FCST...WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND LOOKS TO BE THE MOST VULNERABLE...WITH A MODERATE NE WIND
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH SHOULD BE EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN/NV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

NJZ006-NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179-272115-
HUDSON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN COMBINATION
WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON MAY
LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ009-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-272115-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN COMBINATION
WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON MAY
LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ011-012-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ079-081-272115-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-272115-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ106-108-272115-
EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN COMBINATION
WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON MAY
LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ010-272115-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN COMBINATION
WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON MAY
LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ350-353-355-272115-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

GALES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-272115-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
512 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.