Tornado Warning 11, NWS Omaha, NE

196 
WWUS53 KOAX 122210
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
510 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

IAC133-NEC021-173-122230-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110512T2230Z/
MONONA IA-BURT NE-THURSTON NE-
510 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN THURSTON...NORTH
CENTRAL BURT AND NORTHWESTERN MONONA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DECATUR...OR 31 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX
CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MACY AND WINNEBAGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 9633 4225 9632 4223 9632 4222 9633
      4222 9618 4199 9623 4197 9634 4228 9651
      4228 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 174DEG 7KT 4207 9628

$$

MAYES

948 
WWUS53 KOAX 122232
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
532 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

IAC133-NEC021-173-122241-
/O.EXP.KOAX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110512T2230Z/
MONONA IA-BURT NE-THURSTON NE-
532 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN THURSTON...NORTH CENTRAL BURT AND 
NORTHWESTERN MONONA COUNTIES HAS BEEN REISSUED...

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4227 9633 4225 9632 4223 9632 4222 9633
      4222 9618 4199 9623 4197 9634 4228 9651
      4228 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 174DEG 7KT 4207 9628

$$

MAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ACTIVE EVENING THEN PATTERN FLIPS BACK TO WHAT IT WAS
OVER THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL/EARLY MAY...COOL.

FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER
LOW PIVOT POINT NEAR MCK AT 19Z. PRIOR TO THAT TIME SHOWER/ANY
CONVECTION WAS TIED MORE CLOSELY TO THE UPPER LOW ALTHOUGH THAT
WILL BE CHANGING INTO EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD NEAR DRY LINE FROM SCNTRL NEBRASKA INTO KS WHICH WAS
PUNCHING UP TOWARD SERN NEBRASKA...AND ALSO POSSIBLY NEAR
BOUNDARY IN NERN NEBRASKA. WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY INCREASING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA PER 4KM WRF...CATEGORICAL POPS APPEAR IN ORDER
THIS EVENING DECREASING SOME AFTER 06Z AS STRONGEST CONVECTION
EITHER WEAKENS OR MOVES OUT BY THAT TIME. BESIDES LARGE HAIL
THREAT WITH LOW FREEZING LEVEL PER 18Z OAX SOUNDING...TORNADO
THREAT EXISTS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR BOUNDARIES IS DECENT. LTL/NO
CHANGES TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
MAV/MET BLEND ACCEPTED.

UPPED POPS FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW APPEARS IT WILL BE A
BIT SLOWER TO DEPART. OTHERWISE...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOWERED HIGHS A BIT FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THERE WAS STILL A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN NWRLY FLOW.
ADDED SMALL PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON NRN ZONES AS DECENT
RUN TO RUN SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AS UPPER LOW
NOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BEGINS DROPPING SWD. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST
THIS PRECIP SPREADS ON SUNDAY STILL IN QUESTION...AND AT THIS TIME
KEPT IT CONFINED TO ABOUT THE ERN 2/3RDS AS FORCING BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE SW AS UPPER LOW COULD TEND TO OPEN UP OR
SHIFT MORE SE.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO MON-WED PERIODS AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE SETS UP PULLING DOWN DRIER BUT STILL RELATIVELY COOL AIR.
KEPT MOST LOWS AROUND 40/LOWER 40S BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR MID
30S/FROST SOME OF THOSE MORNINGS AND THIS COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
FUTURE FORECASTS.

SOME QUESTION IN HOW MUCH ENERGY MANAGES TO UNDERCUT UPPER RIDGE
TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/PRIOR GFS RUNS
MORE BULLISH/FARTHER E. DECIDED TO INCLUDE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
WED FAR SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS SW 1/2 OR SO WED NGT/THU. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH KEPT HIGHS BELOW 70 ALL
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WILL DISRUPT TAF FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON IS
FLIRTING WITH VFR/MVFR LINE...BUT WILL BECOME MVFR FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO IFR VIS/CIGS AS
WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.  HAVE LIFTED CIGS AT ALL SITES DURING THE
LATE MORNING FRIDAY AS LOW MOVES AWAY...AND KEPT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

CHERMOK/MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
440 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-080-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-
050>053-065-066-078-088>090-092-131145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MONTGOMERY-PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-
THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-
PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
440 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE
TORNADO THREAT IS GENERALLY BEFORE 10 PM AND MAINLY IN NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST OF ALBION...NORFOLK AND WAYNE. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE
LARGER THAN GOLFBALL-SIZE...AGAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF TOWNS. LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA WERE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FORCING AND WIND SHEAR FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY
FROM AROUND THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.

IAZ079-090-NEZ067-068-091-093-131145-
MILLS-FREMONT-CASS-OTOE-NEMAHA-RICHARDSON-
440 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER...
THE TORNADO THREAT IS GENERALLY BEFORE 10 PM AND MAINLY IN
NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST OF ALBION...NORFOLK AND WAYNE BUT NORTHWEST OF
FALLS CITY. LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA WERE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FORCING
AND WIND SHEAR FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
FROM AROUND PLATTSMOUTH DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RULO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM AROUND
PLATTSMOUTH DOWNSTREAM THROUGH AROUND RULO INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...BUT
GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

CHERMOK