River Flood Advisory 4, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
252 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SERN CO
HELPING TO TOUCH OFF FIRST WAVE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ALREADY BEFORE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. WITH INSTABILITY
AXIS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE EVENING...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD ALSO SPREAD NWD AND CHC OF SEVERE WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL
ZONES BEFORE 06Z. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS WERE
PRESENT AT 19Z NEAR PLATTE RIVER...ALTHOUGH DEEPER SHEAR WAS
FARTHER REMOVED SW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND FORECAST TO REMAIN
THERE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH BETTER DEEP SHEAR WAS AND
COULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND AREAS OF LOWER LFC/LCLS DO PROVIDE A TORNADO THREAT
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LATER TONIGHT EXPECT BULK OF
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT N OR E OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES LIFTING SLOWLY ENE. PULLED POPS FAR S AFTER 06Z AND
REDUCED ELSEWHERE...LESS SO ALONG NRN ZONES. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF
FOG SW ZONES AS CLEARING EXPECTED BUT LOW LEVEL DRYING MINIMAL.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN
CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH 4KM WRF
DOWNPLAYED ACTIVITY EXCEPT MORE CLOSELY TIED TO UPPER LOW. THUS
KEPT POPS LOWER ALONG AND E OF MO RIVER. KEPT 80+ MAX TEMPS ALSO
ALONG/E OF MISSOURI AND MADE LTL/NO CHANGES ELSEWHERE AS A CASE
COULD BE MADE TO GO EITHER WAY WITH TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY COOLER
IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AIDS IN SHOVING FRONT FARTHER SE...OR
RAISING THEM A BIT WEST OF RIVER IF PUSH IS WEAKER AND CLEARING
GETS A CHANCE TO WORK ON THINGS THROUGH MIDDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO
ERN NEBR. SOME THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS
UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH HOW WIDESPREAD BETTER INSTABILITY
EXISTS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.

AFTER THAT 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FORECAST QUITE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL AIR OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA.
UPPED SKY COVER AND TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES BOTH FRI AND SAT.
LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SE AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD ENTER FAR NWRN ZONES AS UPPER LOW THAT WAS
OVER SRN CANADA AT 12Z THIS MORNING BEGINS DROPPING SWD. BULK OF
FRI/SAT PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.

THIS LOW...WHICH OTHER MODELS HAVE FOLLOWED TRENDS OF 10/12Z
GFS...DROPS SWD ALONG MO RIVER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS
SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS MOCLOUDY AND COOL AND MAX TEMPERATURES WERE
TRIMMED EVEN FURTHER. ALSO INCLUDED SMALL POPS ERN ZONES WHERE
FORCING WAS A BIT BETTER.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE NEXT WEEK...THIS WARM-UP WAS
DOWNPLAYED BY BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AS H85 TEMPS GENERALLY
REMAIN IN SINGLE DIGITS. THUS LOW TEMPS AND MAX TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE LITTLE COOLER 12Z MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES...WITH STORMS MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  IN THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY WINDS.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH AROUND 06Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER THAT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY BREAKING AT
LEAST AT KLNK AND PERHAPS KOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

CHERMOK/MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
559 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-121300-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
559 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIKELY SHIFTED NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AND SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES WERE IN THE VICINITY. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE OR END
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
SEVERE...COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
WAYNE TO COLUMBUS.

MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF NEBRASKA CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED ANY MORE TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.

CHERMOK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
706 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

NEZ011-012-016>018-031-032-120100-
ANTELOPE NE-CEDAR NE-KNOX NE-MADISON NE-PIERCE NE-STANTON NE-WAYNE
NE-
706 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ANTELOPE...NORTHERN STANTON...
WAYNE...PIERCE...NORTHERN MADISON...KNOX AND CEDAR COUNTIES UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GUSTING UP TO 50
MPH WERE OCCURRING BEHIND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTH OUT OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE STRONG WINDS WERE GENERALLY
OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER THE RAIN MOVED NORTH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM IN MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT COULD OCCUR AS LATE AS 9 PM BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

LOCATIONS THE COULD EXPERIENCE THE STRONG WINDS INCLUDE...
  NIOBRARA...
  WYNOT...
  SANTEE...
  LINDY...
  FORDYCE...
  CROFTON...
  VERDEL...
  OBERT...
  ST. HELENA...
  LEWIS AND CLARK STATE RECREATION AREA...

DERGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
711 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

NEZ093-120100-
RICHARDSON NE-
711 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR RICHARDSON COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 708 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FALLS CITY TO HUMBOLDT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  FALLS CITY...
  VERDON...
  HUMBOLDT...
  SHUBERT...
  STELLA...
  BARADA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

NIETFELD

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