Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
910 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.UPDATE...ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 9PM MDT
THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
SEVERE LEVELS. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AIRFIELDS KMSO...KGPI...KBTM AND KSMN WILL
ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL AGAIN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGAN TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM LOWELL IDAHO TO SEELEY LAKE MONTANA. A THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS..SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL COOL DOWN TO
ABOUT NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THEN A
WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE COOLED
DOWN SOME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND.

&&

NOTE: FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE LISTED BELOW.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PALLISTER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....SMITH/GIBSON
AVIATION...KITSMILLER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1042 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MTZ004-130515-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
1042 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MISSOULA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MINERAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM MDT...

AT 1032 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF LOLO...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MISSOULA...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALBERTON...HUSON AND
NINEMILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4678 11431 4680 11443 4677 11448 4675 11454
      4673 11456 4672 11457 4709 11453 4708 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 193DEG 21KT 4679 11441

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1056 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MTZ003-130530-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
1056 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FLATHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN
LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM MDT...

AT 1047 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BIG ARM...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
POLSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIGFORK...ELMO...
FINLEY POINT...DAYTON...PROCTOR...LAKE MARY RONAN...ROLLINS...
LAKESIDE AND SOMERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4806 11402 4802 11408 4800 11404 4796 11404
      4796 11407 4791 11402 4776 11400 4764 11406
      4777 11450 4795 11439 4796 11425 4808 11430
      4812 11427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 208DEG 21KT 4781 11433

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1101 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

MTZ001-003-130545-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
1101 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLATHEAD...CENTRAL
SANDERS AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM MDT...

AT 1056 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLAINS...OR 27 MILES WEST
OF POLSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LONEPINE...NIARADA...
LAKE MARY RONAN AND PROCTOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4804 11463 4791 11427 4757 11469 4767 11491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 215DEG 19KT 4769 11472