Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

July 12, 2011Missoula County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this special weather statement at Jul 12, 2011, 10:15 PM MDT for Missoula County, Montana. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2011, 10:15 PM MDT (04:15 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2011, 11:00 PM MDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT

County Missoula County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2329 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 167 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 12, 9:10 PM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 9:10 PM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
910 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.UPDATE...ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 9PM MDT
THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
SEVERE LEVELS. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AIRFIELDS KMSO...KGPI...KBTM AND KSMN WILL
ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL AGAIN LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGAN TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM LOWELL IDAHO TO SEELEY LAKE MONTANA. A THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS..SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL COOL DOWN TO
ABOUT NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THEN A
WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE COOLED
DOWN SOME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND.

&&

NOTE: FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE LISTED BELOW.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PALLISTER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....SMITH/GIBSON
AVIATION...KITSMILLER

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 7:14 PM MDT, 3 hours 1 minute before

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Special weather statement, Jul 12, 7:52 PM MDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 12, 9:26 PM MDT, 49 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 12, 10:15 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 7:14 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lincoln	31 min
Jul 12, 7:52 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Missoula	53 min
Jul 12, 9:26 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Missoula	49 min
Jul 12, 10:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Missoula	29 min
Jul 12, 10:42 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Missoula	33 min
Jul 12, 10:56 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lake	34 min
Jul 12, 11:01 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lake	44 min
Jul 12, 11:24 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Sanders	36 min
Jul 13, 12:33 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Flathead	27 min
Jul 13, 1:02 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO		28 min
Jul 13, 12:45 PM MDT	Flash Flood Watch	MSO	Deer Lodge, Granite, Ravalli, Silver Bow	7 hr
Jul 13, 1:07 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Ravalli	38 min
Jul 13, 3:54 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Silver Bow	51 min
Jul 13, 5:11 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MSO	Granite	3 hr
Jul 13, 5:46 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lake	44 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.