Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON
THE EASTERN EDGES OF WATCH 430. DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TO THE EAST OF
ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY THAT
IS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOWN BY THE RUC. INVERTED-V PROFILE OF RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THOUGH CAPE IS PLENTIFUL
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS QUITE HIGH...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL
INCLUDE A LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THE STORMS.

AN MCV FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP GOING AFTER 00Z. THE MID-UPPER
RIDGE BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUILDING BACK
OVER THE REGION. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
UNDER THE RIDGE TOMORROW. RECORD HIGHS OF 93 AT TRI...98 AND TYS AND
CHA...LOOK TO BE SAFE TOMORROW BY A COUPLE DEGREES. WENT WITH LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT ABOVE GFS MOS AS IT HAS BEEN MUCH TOO COOL LATELY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ALTHOUGH RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS REGION SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY STILL
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND SW NC WHERE TOPOGRAPHY WILL ENHANCE LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME
WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT SO LOWS UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 60S
SOUTH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTHERN VALLEY.
THURSDAY RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ADDED POPS
TO ALL AREAS WITH CHANCE POP MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FLATTENED OR WEAKENED RIDGE ALLOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH WITH CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  96  67  95  68 /  30   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  93  64  93  66 /  30   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  93  63  94  65 /  30   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  90  56  90  61 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

DGS/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
344 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-060900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
344 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011 /244 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME TODAY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
420 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             2 NW HOPEWELL           35.26N 84.93W
06/05/2011  E0.88 INCH       BRADLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING MORGAN ROAD. REPORTED BY STORM
            SPOTTER.

&&

FERRELL