Special Marine Warning 151, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

..INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

..BEACH EROSION...DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...

..AN EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENT AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING SETTING UP
FOR THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...TROPICAL STORM LEE
ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEE IS POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LEE TO BREAK
DOWN...RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST FORECAST BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES LEE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN STATES SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THE
STORM...CRAWLING NORTHWARD...IS FORECAST TO BE NEARING THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE WET...EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION.
FORECASTERS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED OF A PROLONGED AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING IN THE NEAR TERM AS BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ROTATE IN OFF THE GULF. RAIN GAUGES WILL BEGIN FILLING UP OVER THE
GULF COAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INITIALLY...WITH
STORM TOTAL RAINS (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) POSSIBLY UPWARDS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IN THESE AREAS SOUTHWEST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE INDEED LIKELY. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED...LOWER LYING AREAS. RUNOFF OF EXCESSIVE STORM WATER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL.

ANOTHER SERIOUS CONCERN IS LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BEACH EROSION. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. DEADLY RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AS WELL.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK FROM THE CLOUDY...RAINY
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. /10

THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY TROPICAL STORM LEE. THE LATEST
FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES LEE FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVES THE LEE'S CENTER EAST TO
NORTHEAST...BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY 60 MILES NORTH OF MOBILE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...THE IMPACTS OF LEE LOOKS TO BE WITH US FOR
QUITE SOME TIME AND WILL BE WORSENING ESPECIALLY INTO LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD BEING THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE STORM
EVENT TOTAL RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY...FROM 10 TO 15 INCHES SOUTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA. NORTHEAST OF
THIS LINE...5 TO 10 INCH RANGE. FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN
POORLY DRAINED...LOWER LYING AREAS. RUNOFF OF EXCESSIVE STORM WATER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL. OTHER HAZARDS MENTIONED IN
THE SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION LOOK TO CONTINUE AS WELL. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY => BEACH EROSION...HIGH SURF...DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SEAS. THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
OUTER SPIRAL BANDS EXISTS AS WELL.

WEATHER PATTERN QUIETING DOWN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES
OF RAIN ON THE DECLINE AS REMNANTS OF LEE LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH. NO
CHANGES MADE TO LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RANGE FROM
MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 60S. /10

&&

.AVIATION (02/00Z ISSUANCE)...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT TEMPO IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY'S IN PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 13 TO 18 KNOT RANGE...BUT HIGHER GUSTS INTO
THE 25 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR CONVECTIVE AREAS. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...NOT AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO
WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM LEE...AS MOST OF THE BETTER PERFORMING
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FCST POSITIONS PROVIDED BY NHC.
BOTH OF THESE MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE JUST SOUTH OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY THEN WE NOTICE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MOTION THAN THE ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...WITH ALL THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS AND NWS/NHC
FCSTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS MARINE FCST PACKAGE WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S ISSUANCE. A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM 20
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...GALE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY
IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUILDING TO THE 12 TO 18
FOOT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. SURF HEIGHTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES WILL
BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SATURDAY...MAKING LANDFALL THERE LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OVER ATCHAFALAYA BAY. A WET...BREEZY TO WINDY PERIOD
IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  82  77  88 / 100 100  90  90
PENSACOLA   77  83  79  87 /  90  90  90  90
DESTIN      77  85  77  87 /  50  90  90  80
EVERGREEN   71  86  74  87 /  30  70  80  80
WAYNESBORO  71  85  74  84 /  40  90  90  90
CAMDEN      70  89  73  85 /  30  50  60  80
CRESTVIEW   72  85  76  86 /  40  70  70  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER
     BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...AND WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...AND STONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1202 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-040000-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1202 AM CDT SAT AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

THE ROUTINE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN SUSPENDED. THE HWO
WILL RESUME WHEN TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR
THE AREA. INFORMATION NORMALLY CARRIED IN THE HWO CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL STORM STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE GRAPHICAL HWO FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE INTERNET HOME PAGE.