Alert archive / Alabama / Fire Weather Watches in 2011

Fire Weather Watch 49, NWS Mobile, AL

November 8, 201110 counties in Alabama

NWS Mobile, AL issued this fire weather watch at Nov 8, 2011, 2:33 PM CST for 10 counties in Alabama. It took effect at Nov 11, 2011, 9:00 AM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 8, 2011, 2:33 PM CST (20:33 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 11, 2011, 9:00 AM CST
Expired
Nov 10, 2011, 2:18 PM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL

Counties Butler County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Eglin AFB/Valpar, FL (KVPS), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Eglin AFB/Valpar, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-11-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 17 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Eglin AFB/Valpar, FL at 12:00Z on 2011-11-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 38 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
17 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
950 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

413 
WWUS84 KMOB 082033
RFWMOB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PERCENT AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20
MPH...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO SAME WIND
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES ABOVE
35...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO
MARGINALLY LONG DURATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT AND
FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATION OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WELL
ABOVE 35...

.A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

FLZ001>006-091245-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1700Z-111111T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1500Z-111112T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
233 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND ERC VALUES ABOVE 35...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AND ERC VALUES WELL
ABOVE 35...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...004... 
  005 AND 006. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY THEN WEST TO
  NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR 20 PERCENT
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ALZ051>064-091245-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1700Z-111112T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-
233 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PERCENT
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR A MARGINALLY
LONG DURATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...052...053...054... 
  055...056...057...058...059...060...061...062...063 AND 064. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
  WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR 20 PERCENT
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091245-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
233 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PERCENT AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 067...075...076...078 AND 
  079. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
  WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
339 
WWUS84 KMOB 091151
RFWMOB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
551 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FOR A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY OVER BOTH AREAS AND
ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH...


.A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY. LOW HUMIDITY THURSDAY 22 TO 28 PERCENT WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS. DRIER ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND.

FLZ001>006-092030-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1700Z-111111T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.W.0050.111110T1700Z-111110T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1500Z-111112T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
551 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH
FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY 
AND ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35E FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME
AREA.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...004... 
  005 AND 006. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY THEN WEST TO 
  NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR20 
  PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER  FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ALZ051>064-092030-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1700Z-111112T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-
551 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED 
PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SOUTH  AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY
FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...052...053...054... 
  055...056...057...058...059...060...061...062...063 AND 064. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY THEN WEST TO
  NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY. 

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR20 
  PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-092030-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
551 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WIND FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 067...075...076...078 AND 
  079. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$
044 
WWUS84 KMOB 091925
RFWMOB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
125 PM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FOR A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
LOW HUMIDITY AND ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH...

.BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT USHER
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

FLZ001>006-101130-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.W.0050.111110T1700Z-111110T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1500Z-111112T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
125 PM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND 20 FOOT WINDS
ABOVE 15 MPH FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY 
AND ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME AREA.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...004... 
  005 AND 006. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY THEN WESTERLY WINDS 5
  TO 10 MPH FRIDAY.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR 20 PERCENT
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD 
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER  FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ALZ051>064-101130-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1700Z-111112T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-
125 PM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY
FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...052...053...054... 
  055...056...057...058...059...060...061...062...063 AND 064. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY THEN WESTERLY WINDS 5
  TO 10 MPH FRIDAY.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD 
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-101130-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
125 PM CST WED NOV 9 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WIND FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 067...075...076...078 AND 
  079. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$
223 
WWUS84 KMOB 101148
RFWMOB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
548 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


.STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR TODAY. LOWEST
HUMIDITY 20 TO 25 PERCENT WITH 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A BIT DRIER ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

ALZ051>064-102030-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KMOB.FW.W.0050.111110T1900Z-111110T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1700Z-111112T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-
548 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY...


* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...052...053...054... 
  055...056...057...058...059...060...061...062...063 AND 064. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER  FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102030-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FW.A.0048.111110T1900Z-111110T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KMOB.FW.W.0050.111110T1900Z-111110T2300Z/
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
548 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FLZ001>006-102030-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.W.0050.111110T1700Z-111110T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1500Z-111112T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
548 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH FOR THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY
AND ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME AREA.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...004... 
  005 AND 006. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR20 
  PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD 
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER  FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$
556 
WWUS84 KMOB 102018
RFWMOB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
218 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR A
MARGINALLY LONG PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR A LONG
PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 OVER THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A MARGINALLY LONG DURATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND ERC VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 35 FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO 20 TO
25 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT. ERC VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 OVER THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR A MARGINALLY
LONG DURATION WITH ERC VALUES ABOVE 35.

FLZ001>006-111230-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1500Z-111112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.W.0051.111111T1500Z-111112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.A.0050.111112T1700Z-111112T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111110T2300Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
218 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND 20 FOOT WINDS
ABOVE 15 MPH FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND ERC VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 FOR
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND ERC
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...004... 
  005 AND 006. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...NEAR 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 20 PERCENT
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD 
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ALZ051>064-111230-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FW.A.0049.111111T1700Z-111112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FW.W.0051.111111T1700Z-111112T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111110T2300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-
218 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
A MARGINALLY LONG DURATION OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...052...053...054... 
  055...056...057...058...059...060...061...062...063 AND 064. 

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 20 PERCENT FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD 
  RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111110T2300Z/
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
218 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH...

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this fire weather watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this fire weather watch went out at Nov 8, 2:04 PM CST, 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 8, 2:04 PM CST, 29 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
204 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE WEAKENING NARROW
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SEAN MOVES LITTLE AND THE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.  INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED...AS SEAN HAS KEPT THE NARROW RIDGE IN
EXISTENCE AS LONG AS POSSIBLE WHICH HAS IN TURN ACTED TO SEVERELY
DELAY THE RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE DECREASE FURTHER WEST WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOMEWHAT BETTER AND EARLIER MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  0-1 KM MLCAPES ARE THUS
THE BEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...IN THE 200-400 J/KG
RANGE AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY.  09Z SREF SHOWS
A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SBCAPES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN THIS
AREA...BUT ALL CAPE VALUES DECREASE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AS BOTH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE AND THE TIME OF
DAY TAKE THEIR TOLL.  SO EXPECT THE BEST EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DECREASING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  EVEN IF THE CAPE DOES
MANAGE TO ATTAIN 500 J/KG...0-1 KM HELICITIES ARE LESS THAN 90 M2/S2
SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DROP TO WELL BELOW
SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER FLOWS
INTO THE REGION.  MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALSO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED A FREEZE WARNING AND ANOTHER SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
SIXTIES. /29

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD GENERALLY ZONAL
PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROF PASSAGE WHILE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN
STATES.  THIS NEXT TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODEL IN AGREEMENT TO SOME DEGREE ON A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A RETURN FLOW PATTERN.
WITHOUT ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISMS AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RECOVERING...A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SMALL POPS
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A
COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE
STALLING.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES BY
SATURDAY THEN WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRECEDE A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW...WITH GUIDANCE ADVERTISING WINDS BUMPING GALES IN
MAGNITUDE DURING THE INITIAL 6-12 HRS AFTER FROPA. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FROM THE 00Z RUNS. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE
MAGNITUDES A BIT AS FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORTHEASTWARD SHUNT FROM THE RIDGE BEING SQUASHED BETWEEN THE
SYSTEM DRIVING THE FRONT OVER THE FA AND TS SEAN. AFTER
FROPA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST...TO OVER THE FA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

/16

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...WITH
THE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST
SECTION OF THE FA WEST OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS THESE AREAS(MVFR AT THE LOWEST TODAY). AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE
FA...AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY OVER WESTERN-MOST SECTIONS OF THE FA
BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM EXPECTING ANY TSRA WHICH
COULD WORK IN TO BE MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFTER
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ERC VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 35...THE UPPER
THIRTIES...OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 ON FRIDAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MEANWHILE WILL
DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND DROP EVEN
LOWER ON FRIDAY TO AROUND TWENTY PERCENT.  THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DURATION AND ERC ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...AND THE WIND CRITERIA IS
MET AS WELL DUE TO  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.  THE WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA ARE MET FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
WELL AND IS VERY CLOSE FOR OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES...SO HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.  FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURATION IS
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND IS RATHER LONG FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SO WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  75  45  64 /  20  60  30  10
PENSACOLA   61  76  51  67 /  10  40  40  10
DESTIN      63  75  54  67 /  10  30  50  10
EVERGREEN   57  77  46  63 /  10  50  40  10
WAYNESBORO  59  73  41  63 /  20  60  10  05
CAMDEN      56  75  43  63 /  10  60  30  05
CRESTVIEW   55  77  50  65 /  10  30  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
     WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 8, 10:30 AM CST, 4 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-091200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND KEEPING THE RISK OF ANY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE VERY LOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 8, 2:31 PM CSTSmall Craft AdvisoryMOB3 days
Nov 8, 2:33 PM CSTFire Weather WatchMOBButler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw and 4 more39 hr

Nearby

Fire Weather Watches in Alabama, 2011Fire Weather Watches in Florida, 2011Every fire weather watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.