Fire Weather Watch 48, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
204 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE WEAKENING NARROW
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SEAN MOVES LITTLE AND THE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.  INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED...AS SEAN HAS KEPT THE NARROW RIDGE IN
EXISTENCE AS LONG AS POSSIBLE WHICH HAS IN TURN ACTED TO SEVERELY
DELAY THE RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE DECREASE FURTHER WEST WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOMEWHAT BETTER AND EARLIER MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  0-1 KM MLCAPES ARE THUS
THE BEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...IN THE 200-400 J/KG
RANGE AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY.  09Z SREF SHOWS
A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SBCAPES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN THIS
AREA...BUT ALL CAPE VALUES DECREASE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AS BOTH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE AND THE TIME OF
DAY TAKE THEIR TOLL.  SO EXPECT THE BEST EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DECREASING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  EVEN IF THE CAPE DOES
MANAGE TO ATTAIN 500 J/KG...0-1 KM HELICITIES ARE LESS THAN 90 M2/S2
SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DROP TO WELL BELOW
SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER FLOWS
INTO THE REGION.  MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALSO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED A FREEZE WARNING AND ANOTHER SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
SIXTIES. /29

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A BROAD GENERALLY ZONAL
PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROF PASSAGE WHILE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN
STATES.  THIS NEXT TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODEL IN AGREEMENT TO SOME DEGREE ON A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A RETURN FLOW PATTERN.
WITHOUT ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISMS AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RECOVERING...A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SMALL POPS
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A
COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE
STALLING.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES BY
SATURDAY THEN WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRECEDE A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW...WITH GUIDANCE ADVERTISING WINDS BUMPING GALES IN
MAGNITUDE DURING THE INITIAL 6-12 HRS AFTER FROPA. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FROM THE 00Z RUNS. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE
MAGNITUDES A BIT AS FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORTHEASTWARD SHUNT FROM THE RIDGE BEING SQUASHED BETWEEN THE
SYSTEM DRIVING THE FRONT OVER THE FA AND TS SEAN. AFTER
FROPA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST...TO OVER THE FA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

/16

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...WITH
THE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST
SECTION OF THE FA WEST OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS THESE AREAS(MVFR AT THE LOWEST TODAY). AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE
FA...AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY OVER WESTERN-MOST SECTIONS OF THE FA
BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM EXPECTING ANY TSRA WHICH
COULD WORK IN TO BE MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFTER
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ERC VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 35...THE UPPER
THIRTIES...OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 ON FRIDAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MEANWHILE WILL
DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND DROP EVEN
LOWER ON FRIDAY TO AROUND TWENTY PERCENT.  THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DURATION AND ERC ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...AND THE WIND CRITERIA IS
MET AS WELL DUE TO  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.  THE WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CRITERIA ARE MET FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
WELL AND IS VERY CLOSE FOR OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES...SO HAVE ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.  FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURATION IS
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND IS RATHER LONG FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SO WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  75  45  64 /  20  60  30  10
PENSACOLA   61  76  51  67 /  10  40  40  10
DESTIN      63  75  54  67 /  10  30  50  10
EVERGREEN   57  77  46  63 /  10  50  40  10
WAYNESBORO  59  73  41  63 /  20  60  10  05
CAMDEN      56  75  43  63 /  10  60  30  05
CRESTVIEW   55  77  50  65 /  10  30  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
     WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-091200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND KEEPING THE RISK OF ANY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE VERY LOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.