Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...

WED...DEEP LYR NRLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL...TYPICALLY A DRY AND
STABLE FLOW REGIME FOR THE FL PENINSULA. OUTSIDE OF THE MOISTURE
BAND ASSOCD WITH THE DEEP LYR TROF CURRENTLY OVER FL...THE
REGIONAL AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
AOB 60PCT... H85-50 VALUES AOB 50PCT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE TROF
PUSHES INTO THE S PENINSULA...THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FALL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ITS DESCENDING BACKSIDE.

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROF MAY GENERATE TSRAS AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION...WHILE SEABREEZE INTERACTION OVER THE INTERIOR
COULD GENERATE PRECIP AS WELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE DVLPG PATTERN AND THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST. WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
AS THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SUPPRESSES THE LCL AIRMASS...
MAX TEMPS IN THE L90S ALONG THE COAST...M90S INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS
L/M70S AREAWIDE.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA AS IT EXTENDS FURTHER WESTWARD INTO THE GOMEX.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW (EAST-SOUTHEAST) THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP GREATEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES STYMIED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL REMAIN MAINLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIME. WE
WILL SEE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
MOVING INLAND WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN AT LEAST ALONG THE COAST. STORM MOTION TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GREATER CONVECTION CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA THU/THU EVENING. THE LATEST 12Z GFS
DOES SHOW HIGHER PWATS ON THU...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS CAN
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON THU NEAR 90 DEGREES TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

FRI-MON...(PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION)...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS
HOLD THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC AND CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH...THE RIDGE WILL BLOCK MOST OF IT
INTO THE GOMEX...POPS WILL REMAIN AOB 40PCT. THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EARLY EACH DAY
AND PUSH WELL INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO
THE U80S/L90S WHILE LONGER HEATING DURATIONS WILL KEEP INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE L/M90S. THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE L/M70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN TSRA MAY AFFECT
SFB/MCO/LEE/MLB/VRB THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WED NIGHT-SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THRU
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. BACKED S/SE WINDS DURING THE DAY
BEHIND A DAILY ECSB FORMATION WILL VEER MORE SSW/SW LATE EACH
NIGHT AND THRU THE EARLY MORNING PERIODS AS THE PGRAD REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK. OCNL WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REALIZE BELOW THIS. SEAS
MAINLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THROUGH SUN...DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS OVERALL STORM COVERAGE
EACH AFTN-EARLY EVENING STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. GREATER FOCUS
FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA AS
STEERING FLOW CHANGES FROM NORTHERLY TO NE/E PUSHING AFTN/EVENING
STORMS WESTWARD. WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A LITTLE COOLER
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND EACH
AFTN. ISOLD-WDLY SCT LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE OF IGNITING NEW
BRUSH FIRES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PAST MID-WEEK THE WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WEAKENS AND WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY
DROP IN RH VALUES ALONG THE COAST BUT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
COULD STILL REALIZE 1-3 HOURS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECSB IS SLOW TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  94  74  92 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  74  96  75  95 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  73  92  75  92 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  72  92  74  90 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  75  96  76  96 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  76  97  77  96 /  20  30  10  30
ORL  77  96  77  96 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  72  91  73  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
420 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW MERRITT ISLAND WI 28.62N 80.72W
06/14/2011  M75.00 MPH       BREVARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            KTTS AT NASA SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY MEASURED 65 KT/75
            MPH WIND GUST.

0335 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNE KENNEDY SPACE CEN 28.56N 80.67W
06/14/2011  M54.00 MPH       BREVARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            KSC 54 FOOT TOWER NUMBER 509 MEASURED 47 KT/54 MPH WIND
            GUST.

0406 PM     TSTM WND GST     S PATRICK AIRFORCE BASE 28.23N 80.61W
06/14/2011  M39.00 MPH       BREVARD            FL   MESONET

            KCOF AT PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE MEASURED 34 KT/39 MPH WIND
            GUST.

&&

ARB

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