Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OR JUST NORTHWEST OF
THERE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS...GIVEN LARGE MEAN LAYER
CAPES OF 3000 J/KG PLUS AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
LARGE SIGNIFICANT HAIL GROWTH ZONE CAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES
SHOULD LEAD TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
MODEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR AND 1500 METER LCLS.

STORMS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP NEAR THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOWS
LATER TONIGHT TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 50S LAKESIDE...AND MID TO
UPPER 50S INLAND.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY...AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE
AND BRISK. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH...WITH
UPPER 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A
STORM IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...AS LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA TRIES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF WISCONSIN BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  NWD MOVEMENT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE WHICH STRENGTHENS
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/SAT.  MODERATE
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI LATER THU NGT AND
FRI MRNG AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z/FRI.  SRN WI IS ALSO
CLOSE TO THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET FRI NGT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.  PWAT VALUES SURGE TO
1-1.5 INCHES AGAIN.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST AS FOCUS WOULD BE JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SRN WI.  WARM CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES TO
ALMOST 11K FEET BUT MESO-BETA VELOCITIES GREATER THAN 30 KTS.
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
PASSING ACROSS REGION ON FRI AS WELL.  HENCE WL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
LATER THU NGT INTO FRI.

DUE TO LINGERING WEAK RIDGING...BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS THURSDAY
EVENING IN CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...BUT STILL EXPCNG WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN TO SPREAD IN LATER IN THE NIGHT.

FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
IL INTO LOWER MI AT THIS TIME SO DRYING AND CLEARING TREND DURING
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LONG TERM
GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WRN
GTLAKES REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING
HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.  WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO SRN CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE RATHER CONSISTENT ON SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS WI.  HENCE WL
NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FROM MON THROUGH TUE.

GFS 5 DAY 500H ANOMOLIES SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS UPSTREAM
OVER NW CONUS AND SW CAN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  WITH GRADUAL
CHANGE...WOULD EXPC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GRADUALLY SLIP SWD REDUCING
THREAT OF STRONGER CONVECTION AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER NEXT
WEEK.  ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO CONGREGATING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AT TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. KMSN SHOULD BE
AFFECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE UNTIL THEN...WITH
MARINE INVERSION KEEPING GUSTS UNDER 20 KNOTS TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND MIXING DECREASING BY SUNSET
ALSO FAVORS ENDING GUSTS CAUSING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND DEVELOP FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE WINDS MAY GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THE BRISK ONSHORE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH WAVES MAY CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATURDAY...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
640 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-092345-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
640 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-092345-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
640 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS AND INCREASING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
757 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELLEVILLE              42.86N 89.54W
06/08/2011  E80 MPH          DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HORIZONTAL RAIN AND HAIL.

&&

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
802 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             MOUNT HOREB             43.01N 89.73W
06/08/2011  E0.50 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL. ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUST...BASED ON
            OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND.

0714 PM     HAIL             BARNEVELD               43.01N 89.90W
06/08/2011  M0.75 INCH       IOWA               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0746 PM     HAIL             3 N HARTFORD            43.37N 88.39W
06/08/2011  M1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 PM     HAIL             3 NE MCFARLAND          43.05N 89.25W
06/08/2011  M1.75 INCH       DANE               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 18 AND HIGHWAY AB.

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E PAOLI               42.93N 89.48W
06/08/2011                   DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ACROSS A ROAD.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
804 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             1 E VERONA              42.99N 89.52W
06/08/2011  M1.75 INCH       DANE               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0759 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MCFARLAND               43.02N 89.29W
06/08/2011                   DANE               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
810 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REWEY                   42.84N 90.40W
06/08/2011                   IOWA               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UTILITY POLES DOWN.

0755 PM     HAIL             MADISON                 43.08N 89.38W
06/08/2011  M0.50 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0756 PM     HAIL             SHOREWOOD HILLS         43.08N 89.45W
06/08/2011  M0.88 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0756 PM     HAIL             SW MADISON              43.08N 89.38W
06/08/2011  M0.50 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
814 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             MADISON                 43.08N 89.38W
06/08/2011  M1.00 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
818 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 S MADISON             43.01N 89.38W
06/08/2011                   DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH A BRIEF FUNNEL.

0808 PM     TSTM WND GST     SE EVANSVILLE           42.78N 89.30W
06/08/2011  M59.00 MPH       ROCK               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WIMBERLEY