Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Milwaukee, WI

June 8, 2011Dane County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 8, 2011, 7:15 PM CDT for Dane County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 60 min. 19 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 8, 2011, 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: Jun 8, 2011, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 2.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Dane County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 8, 7:26 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 65	Monona, WI	DAMAGE TO POWER LINES...ROOF DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES.
Jun 8, 7:26 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Monona, WI	REPORTED POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD NORTH OF LOCATION...DAMAGE TO POWER LINES...ROOF DAMAGE...DOWN TREES. WINDS ESTIMATED TO AROUND 65 MPH.
Jun 8, 7:40 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	Sw Madison, WI
Jun 8, 7:40 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 E Paoli, WI	10 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ACROSS A ROAD.
Jun 8, 7:41 PM CDT	TORNADO 1	2 Wsw Verona, WI	EF1 TORNADO BEGAN AT 741 PM 2.5 MI. WSW OF VERONA AND ENDED AT 802 PM 3.0 MI NE OF MCFARLAND, WI...A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 15 MILES. ESTIMATED 86-90 MPH WINDS. TREES UPROOTED, POWER LINES DOWN, NO INJURIES OR DEATHS. PATH WIDTH ABOUT 100 YARDS.
Jun 8, 7:50 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	3 Ne Mcfarland, WI	AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 18 AND HIGHWAY AB.
Jun 8, 7:51 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	5 S Madison, WI	ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH A BRIEF FUNNEL.
Jun 8, 7:54 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 80	Belleville, WI	HORIZONTAL RAIN AND HAIL.
Jun 8, 7:55 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 70	Mcfarland, WI
Jun 8, 7:55 PM CDT	HAIL 0.5	Madison, WI
Jun 8, 7:55 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	1 E Verona, WI
Jun 8, 7:56 PM CDT	HAIL 0.5	Sw Madison, WI
Jun 8, 7:56 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Shorewood Hills, WI
Jun 8, 7:59 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	Mcfarland, WI
Jun 8, 8:00 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Madison, WI
Jun 8, 8:00 PM CDT	HAIL 1.5	Madison, WI	AT UW MADISON.
Jun 8, 8:05 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 44	Stoughton, WI	STGHT
Jun 8, 8:17 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 Wsw Sun Prairie, WI	MULTIPLE SMALL ALUMINUM GROUND-MOUNTED FLAG POLES BLOWN DOWN.
Jun 8, 8:25 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 70	Sun Prairie, WI

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 9 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 11 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 8, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4124 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1367 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.4
Supercell composite: 10.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

858 
WUUS53 KMKX 090015
SVRMKX
WIC025-090115-
/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0081.110609T0015Z-110609T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
715 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP
  TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROSS PLAINS...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNT
  HOREB...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VERONA AND BELLEVILLE AROUND 725 PM CDT.
  MIDDLETON AROUND 730 PM CDT.
  SHOREWOOD HILLS...WAUNAKEE AND FITCHBURG AROUND 740 PM CDT.
  MADISON CAPITOL SQUARE...MAPLE BLUFF AND OREGON AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  MADISON TRUAX AIRPORT...MONONA...WINDSOR AND DE FOREST AROUND 750
  PM CDT.
  I90/94 INTERCHANGE AND MCFARLAND AROUND 755 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CAMP
RANDALL STADIUM...HENRY VILAS ZOO...DELAVAN AND DEANSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 8966 4329 8964 4330 8936 4328 8936
      4329 8901 4328 8901 4285 8901 4284 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 265DEG 24KT 4308 8966
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.50IN

$$

MRC

4 follow-up statements

366 
WWUS53 KMKX 090028
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
728 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

WIC025-090115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110609T0115Z/
DANE WI-
728 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DANE COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 723 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROSS PLAINS...OR NEAR MIDDLETON...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHOREWOOD HILLS...WAUNAKEE AND FITCHBURG AROUND 740 PM CDT.
  MADISON CAPITOL SQUARE AND OREGON AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  MAPLE BLUFF...MONONA AND DE FOREST AROUND 750 PM CDT.
  I90/94 INTERCHANGE...MADISON TRUAX AIRPORT...MCFARLAND AND WINDSOR
  AROUND 755 PM CDT.
  STOUGHTON AROUND 800 PM CDT.
  COTTAGE GROVE AND SUN PRAIRIE AROUND 805 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CAMP
RANDALL STADIUM...HENRY VILAS ZOO...DELAVAN AND DEANSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 8966 4329 8964 4330 8936 4328 8936
      4329 8901 4328 8901 4285 8901 4284 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 265DEG 23KT 4309 8954
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.50IN

$$

SEARS

965 
WWUS53 KMKX 090039
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
739 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

WIC025-090115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110609T0115Z/
DANE WI-
739 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DANE COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 737 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VERONA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHOREWOOD HILLS...FITCHBURG AND WAUNAKEE AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  MADISON CAPITOL SQUARE AND OREGON AROUND 750 PM CDT.
  MONONA...MAPLE BLUFF...MCFARLAND AND MADISON TRUAX AIRPORT AROUND
  755 PM CDT.
  I90/94 INTERCHANGE AND STOUGHTON AROUND 800 PM CDT.
  COTTAGE GROVE AND SUN PRAIRIE AROUND 805 PM CDT.
  DEERFIELD AND MARSHALL AROUND 815 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HENRY
VILAS ZOO...CAMP RANDALL STADIUM AND DELAVAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 8966 4329 8964 4330 8936 4328 8936
      4329 8901 4328 8901 4285 8901 4284 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 263DEG 34KT 4305 8953
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 2.50IN

$$

SEARS

716 
WWUS53 KMKX 090048
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
748 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

WIC025-090115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110609T0115Z/
DANE WI-
748 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DANE COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 746 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHOREWOOD HILLS...OR NEAR MADISON CAPITOL
SQUARE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONONA...MAPLE BLUFF...MADISON TRUAX AIRPORT AND WINDSOR AROUND 755
  PM CDT.
  I90/94 INTERCHANGE...MCFARLAND AND STOUGHTON AROUND 800 PM CDT.
  COTTAGE GROVE AND SUN PRAIRIE AROUND 805 PM CDT.
  DEERFIELD...MARSHALL AND CAMBRIDGE AROUND 815 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DELAVAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 8966 4329 8964 4330 8936 4328 8936
      4329 8901 4328 8901 4285 8901 4284 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 263DEG 34KT 4306 8941
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 2.50IN

$$

SEARS

453 
WWUS53 KMKX 090059
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
759 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

WIC025-090115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110609T0115Z/
DANE WI-
759 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DANE COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
80 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONONA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COTTAGE GROVE AND SUN PRAIRIE AROUND 805 PM CDT.
  DEERFIELD...MARSHALL AND CAMBRIDGE AROUND 815 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DELAVAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 8966 4329 8964 4330 8936 4328 8936
      4329 8901 4328 8901 4285 8901 4284 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 263DEG 34KT 4307 8928
WIND...HAIL 80MPH 2.50IN

$$

SEARS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 8, 3:15 PM CDT, 4 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 8, 3:15 PM CDT, 4 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OR JUST NORTHWEST OF
THERE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLS...GIVEN LARGE MEAN LAYER
CAPES OF 3000 J/KG PLUS AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
LARGE SIGNIFICANT HAIL GROWTH ZONE CAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES
SHOULD LEAD TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
MODEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR AND 1500 METER LCLS.

STORMS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP NEAR THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOWS
LATER TONIGHT TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 50S LAKESIDE...AND MID TO
UPPER 50S INLAND.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY...AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE
AND BRISK. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH...WITH
UPPER 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A
STORM IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...AS LOW LEVEL JET OVER IOWA TRIES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF WISCONSIN BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  NWD MOVEMENT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE WHICH STRENGTHENS
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z/SAT.  MODERATE
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI LATER THU NGT AND
FRI MRNG AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z/FRI.  SRN WI IS ALSO
CLOSE TO THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET FRI NGT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.  PWAT VALUES SURGE TO
1-1.5 INCHES AGAIN.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST AS FOCUS WOULD BE JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SRN WI.  WARM CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES TO
ALMOST 11K FEET BUT MESO-BETA VELOCITIES GREATER THAN 30 KTS.
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
PASSING ACROSS REGION ON FRI AS WELL.  HENCE WL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
LATER THU NGT INTO FRI.

DUE TO LINGERING WEAK RIDGING...BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS THURSDAY
EVENING IN CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...BUT STILL EXPCNG WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN TO SPREAD IN LATER IN THE NIGHT.

FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
IL INTO LOWER MI AT THIS TIME SO DRYING AND CLEARING TREND DURING
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LONG TERM
GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WRN
GTLAKES REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  BY MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING
HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.  WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO SRN CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE RATHER CONSISTENT ON SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS WI.  HENCE WL
NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FROM MON THROUGH TUE.

GFS 5 DAY 500H ANOMOLIES SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS UPSTREAM
OVER NW CONUS AND SW CAN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  WITH GRADUAL
CHANGE...WOULD EXPC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GRADUALLY SLIP SWD REDUCING
THREAT OF STRONGER CONVECTION AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER NEXT
WEEK.  ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO CONGREGATING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AT TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. KMSN SHOULD BE
AFFECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...THEN
NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE UNTIL THEN...WITH
MARINE INVERSION KEEPING GUSTS UNDER 20 KNOTS TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND MIXING DECREASING BY SUNSET
ALSO FAVORS ENDING GUSTS CAUSING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND DEVELOP FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE WINDS MAY GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THE BRISK ONSHORE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH WAVES MAY CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATURDAY...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 8, 6:40 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
640 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-092345-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
640 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-092345-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
640 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BRISK NORTH WINDS AND INCREASING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 8, 5:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
526 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             7 N HIGHLAND            43.15N 90.38W
06/08/2011  M0.75 INCH       IOWA               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL FALLING AT TIME OF REPORT...AND
            GETTING LARGER.

&&

WIMBERLEY

Local storm report, Jun 8, 6:11 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
611 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             HIGHLAND                43.05N 90.38W
06/08/2011  M0.75 INCH       IOWA               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN ALSO FALLING

&&

WIMBERLEY

Local storm report, Jun 8, 6:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
614 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             7 N HIGHLAND            43.15N 90.38W
06/08/2011  M1.75 INCH       IOWA               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WIMBERLEY

Local storm report, Jun 8, 6:16 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
616 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             HIGHLAND                43.05N 90.38W
06/08/2011  M1.00 INCH       IOWA               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AS RAIN TAPERED OFF...HAIL INCREASED IN SIZE.

&&

WIMBERLEY

Local storm report, Jun 8, 6:23 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
623 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             7 N HIGHLAND            43.15N 90.38W
06/08/2011  M1.75 INCH       IOWA               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL STILL FALLING.

&&

WIMBERLEY

Local storm report, Jun 8, 6:35 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
635 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NNE DODGEVILLE        42.98N 90.12W
06/08/2011                   IOWA               WI   STORM CHASER

&&

WIMBERLEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 8, 7:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Marquette	67 min
Jun 8, 7:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MKX	Dane	51 min
Jun 8, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, Sauk	46 min
Jun 8, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Sauk	39 min
Jun 8, 8:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Jefferson, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha	40 min
Jun 8, 8:08 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		52 min
Jun 8, 8:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dane, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine and 3 more	45 min
Jun 8, 8:24 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		111 min
Jun 8, 8:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Green, Lafayette	28 min
Jun 8, 8:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Fond du Lac	34 min
Jun 8, 8:59 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MKX		79 min
Jun 8, 9:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine and 4 more	59 min
Jun 8, 9:11 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MKX	Green, Kenosha, Lafayette, Racine, Rock, Walworth	3 hr
Jun 8, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Green, Rock	48 min
Jun 9, 3:38 AM CDT	Small Craft Advisory	MKX		36 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.