Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
307 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN CLOSER TO THE LEESIDE TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES 3000-3700 J/KG WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -8. WINDEX VALUES AVERAGE 40-45 KNOTS EXCEPT
GREENVILLE WITH A WINDEX OF 59 KNOTS. THEREFORE ALL STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
FROM 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE EVENING
THEN TAPER BACK TO 30 PERCENT ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO SET OFF SCATTERED
STORMS. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON TEMPS
AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING THRU
THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND BECOMING
DIFFUSE THURSDAY...THEN WORKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO
HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSTMS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE 30 TO 40
PCT POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
NOT BE AS GREAT AS ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO
BE HIGH ON THESE DAYS AS WELL (NEAR 2 INCHES)...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT ALONG WITH WET MICROBURSTS. BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST
MODELS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS FRONT IS OFFSHORE AND THINK
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS WITH 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...WITH A WET AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN WEDS.
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A TROF
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RUN 2-4
FEET TODAY INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 3-5 FEET TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 15Z
ON TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z ON THURSDAY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET. LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INCREASING
GRADIENT AND BUILDING SEAS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY INTO
THE REGION WITH 1020 MB+ HIGH LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO ABOUT 6 OR 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY MORE THAN 10
MILES OFFSHORE STARTING LATE MORNING TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.

.RIP CURRENTS...A MINIMAL 1 FOOT/8 SECOND SWELL AND NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO A LOW RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR TODAY
ON AREA BEACHES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ044-046-047-080-081-090>095-103-104-281500-
PITT-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-045-079-281500-
MARTIN-WASHINGTON-GREENE-
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-281500-
ONSLOW-
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
500 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             BAYBORO                 35.14N  76.77W
06/27/2011  M0.25 INCH       PAMLICO            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL IN BAYBORO

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100324

MELENDEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
502 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW BERN                35.12N  77.08W
06/27/2011                   CRAVEN             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN NEW BERN NEAR MAIN AND
            CHATMAN RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100325

MELENDEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
503 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FROG LEVEL              35.57N  77.44W
06/27/2011  M1.20 INCH       PITT               NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS 1.20 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES AND
            HALF INCH HAIL OBSERVED IN FROG LEVEL SOUTHWEST OF
            GREENVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1100326

DAG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>