Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

299 
WWUS52 KMHX 271818
SVSMHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCC049-137-271845-
/O.CON.KMHX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-110627T1845Z/
PAMLICO NC-CRAVEN NC-
218 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CRAVEN AND WEST CENTRAL PAMLICO COUNTIES...

AT 215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FOREST...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW BERN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... ERNUL...SPRING HOPE...
REELSBORO...SILVER HILL AND CAYTON.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL FLOOD LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...UNDERPASSES AND OTHER AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3505 7711 3508 7711 3508 7714 3517 7723
      3534 7704 3530 7696 3522 7686 3522 7682
      3519 7679 3504 7695 3507 7700 3504 7698
      3502 7699 3502 7708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 229DEG 6KT 3520 7703

$$

8

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
307 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN CLOSER TO THE LEESIDE TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES 3000-3700 J/KG WITH
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -8. WINDEX VALUES AVERAGE 40-45 KNOTS EXCEPT
GREENVILLE WITH A WINDEX OF 59 KNOTS. THEREFORE ALL STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
FROM 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE CLOSE AND LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE EVENING
THEN TAPER BACK TO 30 PERCENT ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO SET OFF SCATTERED
STORMS. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON TEMPS
AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING THRU
THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND BECOMING
DIFFUSE THURSDAY...THEN WORKING ITS WAY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
FRIDAY. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO
HIGH WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSTMS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE 30 TO 40
PCT POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
NOT BE AS GREAT AS ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO
BE HIGH ON THESE DAYS AS WELL (NEAR 2 INCHES)...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A THREAT ALONG WITH WET MICROBURSTS. BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST
MODELS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS FRONT IS OFFSHORE AND THINK
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS WITH 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...WITH A WET AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN WEDS.
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A TROF
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RUN 2-4
FEET TODAY INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 3-5 FEET TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 15Z
ON TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z ON THURSDAY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET. LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INCREASING
GRADIENT AND BUILDING SEAS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY INTO
THE REGION WITH 1020 MB+ HIGH LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO ABOUT 6 OR 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY MORE THAN 10
MILES OFFSHORE STARTING LATE MORNING TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.

.RIP CURRENTS...A MINIMAL 1 FOOT/8 SECOND SWELL AND NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO A LOW RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR TODAY
ON AREA BEACHES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ044-046-047-080-081-090>095-103-104-281500-
PITT-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-045-079-281500-
MARTIN-WASHINGTON-GREENE-
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-281500-
ONSLOW-
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1144 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ090-092-098-280000-
DUPLIN-JONES-ONSLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...
KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...MAYSVILLE...POLLOCKSVILLE...
TRENTON...JACKSONVILLE
1144 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...HEAVY SMOKE WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF ONSLOW...SOUTHERN JONES
AND SOUTHERN DUPLIN COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE IN NORTHEASTERN PENDER COUNTY WILL DRIFT
NORTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF ONSLOW...SOUTHERN JONES...AND SOUTHERN
DUPLIN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMOKE WILL RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO TWO TO THREE MILES AT TIMES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
HOLLY RIDGE TO HAWS RUN IN ONSLOW COUNTY....TO CHINQUAPIN AND
BEULAVILLE IN DUPLIN COUNTY...AND TO COMFORT AND PLEASANT HILL IN
JONES COUNTY.

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
132 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ090-092-098-271815-
DUPLIN-JONES-ONSLOW-
132 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS DUPLIN...ONSLOW AND JONES
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 132 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ABOUT
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALF MOON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HALF MOON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IF
YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7772 3497 7743 3482 7721 3460 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 237DEG 6KT 3477 7753

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ094-271830-
PAMLICO-
138 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO COUNTY THROUGH 230
PM EDT...

AT 138 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ORIENTAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MERRITT...PAMLICO...
PAMLICO...WHORTONSVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IF
YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER AND THOSE CAMPING OUTDOORS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. THOSE CAMPING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR
VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 7683 3502 7690 3519 7666 3519 7665
      3520 7664 3519 7664 3518 7661 3517 7662
      3516 7660 3517 7659 3515 7653 3511 7656
      3496 7680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 222DEG 3KT 3505 7668

DAG