Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD MAY
DROP INTO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
PUSHING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FIRSTLY...THE MHX RADAR IS NOW UP AND RUNNING AFTER THE UPGRADE TO
DUAL POL TECHNOLOGY.

MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRECIP WATER AND INSTABILITY
NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC AND WILL CONITNUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOW FIRING
NEAR AND SOUTH OF RDU AND EXPECT THIS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT INLAND AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM. STORMS WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH
THRU SUNSET AS THEY CONT TO MOVE EAST THEN SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY
WITH DAYTIME HEAT LOSS. SEVERE TSTM WATCH TIL 10 PM FOR ALL BUT
SOUND COUNTIES AND MARINE AREAS.

OTHERWISE ANTHR VERY WARM/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S
OVRNGT.

WILL CONT TO HAVE SMOKE ISSUES FROM PENDER COUNTY AND PAINS BAY
FIRES OVRNIGHT. LOW LVL FLOW WILL CONT FROM MOSTLY SW DIR WITH
WORST SMOKE/VSBYS OVER ONSLOW...MANY AREAS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WILL
ALSO SEE/SMELL THE SMOKE. CURRENTLY HAVE DENSE SMOKE ADVRY FOR
ONSLOW TIL 6 PM...WITH SPS FOR OTHER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. HIGHS MAY BE A DEG
OR TWO COOLER WITH SLIGHT LOWER THICKNESS VALUES BUT HEAT INDICES
WILL STILL APPROACHING 100F IN THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR. BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO AGAIN BE TIED MAINLY TO DIURNAL CYCLE AS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN.
HAVE KEPT CHANCES AT SLIGHT FOR NOW AS TRIGGERS APPEAR TO BE WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING EASTERN NC
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CWA SAT NIGHT...STALLING THEN MOVING
BACK NORTHWARD SUN. POPS ALSO NEAR CLIMO...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AND BEST CHANCES OF SCT CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS
NEAR 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SMOKE FROM THE PENDER COUNTY FIRE WILL CONT TO BE A PROBLEM
ESPCLY EWN AND POSS OAJ TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SW FLOW WOULD
KEEP BULK OF SMOKE AWAY FROM ISO AND PGV BUT CANT RULE IT OUT ESP
WHEN COMBINED WITH ANY LIGHT FOG THAT MIGHT DEVELOP OVRNGT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY HAVE MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY IN ANY SCTD CONVECTION INVOF THE TERMINALS THRU THE EVE
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN/EVE.

/LONG TERM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH EASTERN NC SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SFC
WINDS TO VEER AND BECOME MORE W/N EARLY SUN...THEN BECOMING S/SE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL CONT SCA CNTRL AND SRN WTRS THRU THIS PERIOD. SEAS AT BUOY
41025 HAVE REACHED 7 FT. A BIT LOWER AS FARTHER S BUT LIKELY
FLIRTING WITH 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS E OF LOOKOUT. WITH HIGH OFFSHORE
AND TRF INLAND WILL CONT TO HAVE DECENT GRDNT OVER THE AREA WITH
SW WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOLID 15 TO 20 KTS MOST WTRS THRU
FRIDAY. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 6 FT
FAR OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S. FURTHER N SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
OFFSHORE FETCH WILL RESULT IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

/LONG TERM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED FRI
NIGHT BTWN HIGH OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS
TIME SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. SW
WINDS 15-25KT FRI NIGHT AND SEAS 5-7FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY FOR SAT AND EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND STALL LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN BEFORE RETREATING NORTH SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE N/W NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND REMAIN SW
SOUTH OF HATTERAS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADV LEVELS
SAT MORNING THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

NCZ098-232115-
ONSLOW-
412 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ONSLOW COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
VERONA...OR ABOUT OVER NEW RIVER AIR STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN
GATE...AND...JACKSONVILLE...MIDWAY PARK...AND...PUMPKIN CENTER...
PINEY GREEN...AND...KELLUM...HUBERT...DEPPE...SILVERDALE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 7745 3471 7758 3492 7726 3489 7722
      3484 7720 3483 7718 3481 7719 3479 7716
      3477 7716 3475 7712 3472 7712 3458 7741
      3460 7740 3461 7743 3458 7742
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 235DEG 23KT 3469 7742

11