Dense Smoke Advisory 5, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER DEEP INLAND COUNTIES.
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT STRONG SFC HEATING SHUD
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL CLOUD EXTENT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLD TO SCTD TSTMS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTN.
WANING CONVECTION MOVES EAST TOWARD THE COAST WITH DIURNAL HEAT
LOSS THIS EVE. ANY OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BRING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS THRU THE EARLY EVE.

SHUD BE A LULL IN CONVECTION OVRNGT GIVEN THE LACK OF TRIGGER AND
STABILIZING BNDRY LAYER. A MILD NIGHT AHEAD (L-M 70S INLAND/U 70S
COAST) AS SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING
PREVENTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY NE OF THE PENDER
COUNTY FIRE TNGT. SMOKE WILL TEND TO SETTLE CLOSER TO THE GROUND
OVER A LARGER PORTION OF EASTERN NC AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
SETS UP...PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
70...BUT EVEN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTH MAY SEE DETERIORATION
OF VSBYS AND AIR QUALITY OVERNGT. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSMHX) INTO THE EVE AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY OVERNGT. SEE LATEST AIR QUALITY ALERT
(AQAMHX) FOR DETAILS ON AIR QUALITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST PUSHES FARTHER OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HAVE SOLID 30-40% POPS FOR INLAND AREAS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH INLAND THERMAL TROF TO GENERATE STORMS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...EXPECT INLAND TROUGHING TO CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE INTO FRI. SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED STRONG/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY DAY EXPECTED FOR FRI AS
PGRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC SAT...THEN STALL AND
LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD SUN/MON THEN STALL THROUGH THE DELMARVA
INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCT
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERNMOST TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE
VSBYS CONDITIONS OVRNGT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE BLOWING
THRU THE AREA AT ANY ONE TIME. MVFR TO TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT EWN/OAJ WITH POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR VSBY AT ISO/PGV.

SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THRU MUCH OF THU MORN BEFORE
LIFTING AND DISPERSING WITH INCREASED MIXING. MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTN OUTSIDE ANY SCT CONVECTION.

/LONG TERM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC SAT THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCT CONVECTION LIKELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN WHICH CIGS/VSBYS MAY
BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR. PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THIS EVE AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ALONG THE COAST. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN
THE LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR BUILDING SEAS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT WILL CONT OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS THRU THURSDAY.

/LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...CHALLENGING MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THU NIGHT INTO FRI BTWN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 5-7FT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH 12Z FRI FOR MAINLY
SEAS. WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO 6-7FT SEAS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. WINDS
WILL LIKELY DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR FRI MORNING THEN SURGE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT TO 15-25KT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING...BUT
AGAIN HAVE HELD OFF EXTENDING SCA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PREDOMINATELY
S/SW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

NCZ045-104-231600-
WASHINGTON-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HOT TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 100 TO 104 THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND INLAND AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ046-047-080-081-231600-
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HOT TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 100 TO 104 THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND INLAND AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-231600-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO HATTERAS INLET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HOT TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 100 TO 104 THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND INLAND AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ044-079-090-091-231600-
PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HOT TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 100 TO 104 THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-231600-
MARTIN-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HOT TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 100 TO 104 THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ092>095-231600-
JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HOT TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 100 TO 104 THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE
IN PENDER COUNTY MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-231600-
ONSLOW-
358 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

DENSE SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE IN PENDER COUNTY WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE COUNTY. HOT TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100 TO 104 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH AROUND 100 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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