Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA CANCELED AT 400 AM EDT...
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
...COOLER AND DRY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...HELICITY HAS DECREASED AS WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE
LINEAR AND THE TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA CANCELED AT 400
AM EDT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MOVING NE THROUGH THE GULF
WATERS AND ONSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY
DUE TO TRAINING ECHOES...MAY REMAIN THE BIGGEST HAZARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...SATL LOOPS STILL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL DIGGING SE INTO THE GUF OF MEX. THIS IS PUSHING A STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE FLA PANHANDLE AS A STRONG SSW-SW WIND FLOW
PULLS THE LOW...THAT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND
THROUGH APPALACHIA BAY...ACROSS N FLA THIS MORNING AND UP THE SE
U.S. COAST TODAY. S FLA HAS HAD AN EVENING AND A BOUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WHICH MAY BE PLAYED OUT AGAIN LATER TODAY. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...WHICH IS TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE SE COAST
...WILL MOVE THROUGH S FLA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CWA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH S FLA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF OF
THE SE COAST BY MID EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EXTEND SW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE W
CARIB.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RUSH OVER S FLA BEHIND THIS FRONT
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE. THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E INTO THE
ATLC TUE BUT AN ESSENTIALLY DRY PERIOD FOR S FLA WILL BE THE MAIN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN NOCTURNAL E COAST SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NIGHTLY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CWA-WIDE SHOWERS MON AND
TUE.

&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GULF WATERS THROUGH 20/09Z WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
25 KTS BEFORE AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT. THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING.

IN THE ATLC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...GALE WARNING UNTIL
19/19Z TODAY. THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ATLC WATERS AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH 20/09Z WITH CAUTION BISCAYNE BAY.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  78  58 / 70 20 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  65  79  62 / 70 20 10 -
MIAMI            86  65  79  63 / 70 20 10 -
NAPLES           82  64  76  58 / 70 20 10 -

&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 500 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT TODAY FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
     BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT TODAY UNTIL 5 AM
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF,
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
     BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF,
     FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF
     THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH,
     FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
     20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
517 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-192300-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
517 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH COULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF BEACHES.

FLOODING: ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO
LONGER IMMINENT...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A DRY AND COOLER END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED...AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD GET IN THE UPPER
50S FOR THE WEEKEND MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLZ072-074-172-173-190830-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
402 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 430 AM EDT

* AT 355 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MIAMI SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
  MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  NORTH MIAMI...
  NORTH MIAMI BEACH...
  HALLANDALE...
  HOLLYWOOD...
  DANIA BEACH...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ROTATION ON THIS STORM AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2600 8011 2591 8011 2591 8010 2589 8011
      2585 8011 2582 8014 2588 8015 2584 8017
      2578 8018 2574 8021 2584 8037 2625 8009
      2621 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 215DEG 33KT 2587 8023

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
648 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLZ071-073-075-173-174-191130-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND
BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL MAINLAND MONROE FL
648 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
  WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY

* UNTIL 730 AM EDT

* AT 646 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER TO FLAMINGO...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  FLAMINGO...
  SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER...
  PA-HAY OKEE OVERLOOK...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2522 8098 2522 8093 2524 8091 2529 8096
      2559 8089 2606 8044 2520 8049 2522 8058
      2520 8058 2513 8067 2514 8068 2516 8067
      2513 8071 2515 8076 2513 8078 2516 8079
      2514 8080 2517 8087 2513 8090 2512 8100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 218DEG 32KT 2557 8082 2514 8095

AK