Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS SHOULD BACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HURRICANE IRENE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. WIND SPEED SHOULD
INCREASE MORE RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE
20-23 KTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THU MORNING AS RAIN BANDS FROM IRENE MOVE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST. WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011/

..MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE PASSING EAST OF FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
..RECORD HIGHS EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND...

TROPICAL SYSTEMS/SHORT TERM...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO FORECAST MAJOR
HURRICANE IRENE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMA ISLANDS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WELL EAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST METRO
AREAS TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS WERE APPROACHING THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE FEEDER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND MOVE
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. THEREFORE...THE POPS
WILL RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT ALONG THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF THE
CWA INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR
TODAY.

AS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FEEDER BANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BE AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE CWA.

THE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND BY
FRIDAY NIGHT BE DOWN TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE MAINLAND AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH HURRICANE IRENE WILL BE AROUND TENTH
OF AN INCH AROUND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS TO HALF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO NO FLOODING CONCERNS
FROM THE RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY...BUT ALLOWING FOR A SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY...AND THEN BRING BACK A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT CHANCE FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND TO
BE IN THE MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGHS ARE RECORD HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND MORE
INFORMATION WILL BE DISCUSS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EAST
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 90S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS WHICH ARE NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE CWA AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS.

MARINE...
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE QUICKLY AND SEAS
WILL BECOME ROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF IRENE THIS
MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE
IS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A
SCA IN EFFECT FOR REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A SCA IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINERS AND BOATERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IRENE AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST UPDATES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THIS OFFICE.

AS IRENE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...NORTH SWELLS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT AT LEAST PALM BEACH
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH TODAY...AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY COULD BE NEED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN AFFECT FOR THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
WINDY TO VERY WIND CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS.

CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST
COAST AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

              08/26/11         08/26/11         09/27/11        08/27/11
 CITIES    FORECAST HIGHS    RECORD HIGHS    FORECAST HIGHS   RECORD HIGHS
  PBI           95             96 - 1946          97           96 - 1954
  FLL           95             96 - 1954          97           97 - 1954
  MIA           96             94 - 2001          97           97 - 1954
MIA BEACH       94             98 - 1958          96           96 - 1954

              08/28/11         08/28/11
 CITES     FORECAST HIGHS    RECORD HIGHS
  PBI           97             97 - 1958
  FLL           97             96 - 1954
  MIA           97             96 - 1954
 MIA BEACH      96             97 - 1958

THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR PBI IS 101 SET BACK INT 1942...FOR FLL
IT IS 100 SET BACK IN 1944...AND IN MIA IT IS 100 SET BACK IN
1942. SO WILL MENTION RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS FOR
THIS WEEKEND IN THE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  95  79 / 60 50 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  95  81 / 60 50 40 20
MIAMI            90  80  96  82 / 60 50 40 20
NAPLES           93  79  92  81 / 30 20 20 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BISCAYNE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH,
     FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO
     OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL
     WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO
     OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
     TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
     BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
     TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
     DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
533 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260045-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
533 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING PALM BEACH WATERS OUT BEYOND 20 NM...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINDER ATLANTIC WATERS...
...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GHLS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY. IRENE IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN
SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES AS IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. NOW IS A
GOOD TIME TO PREPARE IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY PREPARED FOR THIS
HURRICANE SEASON. REFER TO READYSOUTHFLORIDA.ORG AND READY.GOV FOR
A COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE      25.59N 80.10W
08/25/2011  M0.00 MPH        AMZ651             FL   C-MAN STATION

            36 KNOT WINDS DETECTED AT FOLEY ROCKS AT 649 AM

&&

EBAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE      25.59N 80.10W
08/25/2011  M045 MPH        AMZ651             FL   C-MAN STATION

            36 KNOT WINDS DETECTED AT FOLEY ROCKS AT 649 AM

&&

EBAUGH

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