Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
CENTER OF IRENE PASSES SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DURING
THURS AFTERNOON IS WHEN DIRECTION WILL BACK THE FASTEST AS THE
STORM PASSES ITS CLOSEST POINT. SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY INC THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND CREEP UP INTO 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY EVEN PRODUCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY VFR, BUT
MVFR AND IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. /TINGLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011/

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SENT 210 PM EDT...HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY
ON TRACK WITH THE NHC FCST AS IT MOVES TO THE NW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. BASED ON THE FCST TRACK, IT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. IRENE CONTINUES TO
BE A VERY LARGE SYSTEM AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 100-130NM FROM THE CENTER. THESE
WILL THEREFORE MOVE INTO THE PALM BEACH OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS
OVER THE REMAINDER ATLANTIC WATERS EXCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.
THEREFORE, A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH
OFFSHORE WATERS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY PORTION OF BISCAYNE BAY OR THE
MAINLAND. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE WIND PERIPHERY THE E CST METRO
AREA COULD BE WINDY ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTH WIND OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW
OF IRENE AND THIS INDICATIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BY 06Z OR SO,
SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS COULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION AND SO POPS
WILL INCREASE AT THAT POINT WITH BOTH MET AND MAV GIVING LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY. THE TRICKY PART IS THAT SOME HISTORICAL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS HAVE GENERATED A LARGE SUBSIDENCE AIRMASS ON THE W SIDE OF
THE STORM SO S FL COULD ALSO BE RAINFALL FREE ON THURSDAY BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE SINCE THEY ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. IN ADDITION, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF IRENE AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE E CST BEACHES WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.

AS IRENE MOVES OFF TO THE N AND NE OF S FL, THE WIND WILL BECOME
W-SW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO AFFECT INTERIOR
AND E CST METRO REGION. IT COULD ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES, BUT THIS
WILL ALL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM. MEX GUIDANCE CURRENTLY IS SHOWING LOWER TO
MID 90S BUT COULD EASILY HAVE UPPER 90S OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE E
CST METRO AREA.

MARINE...NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE QUICKLY AND
SEAS WILL BECOME ROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF IRENE BY LATER
TONIGHT WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MARINERS AND
BOATERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR IRENE AND
KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST UPDATES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND THIS OFFICE. AS IRENE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, NORTH SWELLS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT AT
LEAST PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TO THE EXACT TRACK THAT IRENE TAKES.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  89  77  93 / 30 60 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  89  78  92 / 40 60 40 40
MIAMI            79  89  78  92 / 40 60 40 40
NAPLES           76  92  77  92 / 10 30 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO
     OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
     TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
     BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
     TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
     DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...04/AT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
834 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE      25.59N 80.10W
08/24/2011  M0 MPH           AMZ651             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A PASSING SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS.

&&

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
924 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

FLZ073-074-250200-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
924 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 920 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG SHOWER NEAR PENNSUCO...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  PENNSUCO...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2566 8062 2575 8069 2594 8038 2590 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 051DEG 29KT 2589 8040

TINGLER