Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
309 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEGUN TO PENETRATE INLAND AND DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWERS STARTED TO DEVELOP AT 1 PM EDT ALONG IT
FROM NORTHERN PALM BEACH SOUTH THROUGH BROWARD SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVECTION PATTERN IS FOLLOWING VERY CLOSELY THE
RUC SOLUTION WHICH INDICATED THAT THE PREVIOUS LINE NORTH OF OUR CWA
WOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING THE CONVECTION INITIATION
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS DEVELOPED IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT AT THE PRESENT TIME FOR THE
SHOWERS TO PERSIST MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL CONVERGENCE PUSH PROVIDED
BY THE SEA-BREEZE. OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES OFF
OF NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND INTENSIFIED QUICKLY AS THEY
ENTERED THE GULF STREAM ENVIRONMENT. PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS OBSERVED
AROUND 250 PM SOUTH OF 75 IN CENTRAL EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS OVER NORTH MIAMI-DADE,
BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTY...WHERE THE LIFTING OF THE FRONT WILL
MEET THE SEA-BREEZE AND RESPECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT STARTED AROUND 1 PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE AS THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE PUSH OF THE SEA BREEZE COMBINED WITH THE N-NE WINDS
FROM THE FRONT COULD ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND ALLOW FOR
LONGER-LIVED CONVECTION THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY OBSERVED.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REASONING IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN EASTERLY BY MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
FORECAST TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MILES PER HOUR, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CWA WATERS. THE SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 MPH TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA WATERS, EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR-SHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2011)

BELIEVE SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP SOON ALONG EASTERN AREAS
WITH FEW TSTMS GETTING CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS FROM AS EARLY AS 18Z.
WL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL THE EASTERN TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH
21-22Z AFTER WHICH TIME MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT MOST SHWRS/TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...WL KEEP VCSH/VCTS THROUGH
EVENING. SFC WINDS FORECAST QUITE MORE DIFFICULT AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATE A SFC THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND SFC WINDS OVER THE ERN TERMINALS SHIFTING FROM SW TO SE
AND THEN FINALLY EAST OVERNIGHT. OVER KAPF...WIND FORECAST MUCH
EASIER WITH WINDS STARTING FROM SW BUT SHIFTING TO NW AFTER FRONT
PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NE-E OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING AROUND 7-8 PM
WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SLOPE FIRE STILL IN PROGRESS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA WHICH COULD
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE AREA.

A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO GLADES, HENDRY,
AND COLLIER COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW
THE FORECAST DOES NOT BRING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
BUT THE CONDITIONS NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENTRAINMENT COULD BRING THE RH DOWN A LITTLE MORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2011/

AVIATION...BELIEVE SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP SOON ALONG
EASTERN AREAS WITH FEW TSTMS GETTING CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS FROM
AS EARLY AS 18Z. WL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL THE EASTERN
TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH 21-22Z AFTER WHICH TIME MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT MOST SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE.
NEVERTHELESS...WL KEEP VCSH/VCTS THROUGH EVENING. SFC WINDS
FORECAST QUITE MORE DIFFICULT AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE A
SFC THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SFC
WINDS OVER THE ERN TERMINALS SHIFTING FROM SW TO SE AND THEN
FINALLY EAST OVERNIGHT. OVER KAPF...WIND FORECAST MUCH EASIER WITH
WINDS STARTING FROM SW BUT SHIFTING TO NW AFTER FRONT PASSAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NE-E OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2011/

UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS OVER
AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE REGION IS
WITHIN 30 TO 35 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 6.8 C
PER KM. THE MAIN THREAT, AS DESCRIBED BY SPC COULD BE SOME PULSE-TYPE
MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
CALCULATIONS USING BUFKIT FOR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL, AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STAYING WEAK
RELATIVE TO THE COOL POOL...STRONG CELL REGENERATION ALONG THE GUST
FRONT WILL BE LIMITED. THE ACTIVITY WILL PEAK LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND TOTAL SHEAR AT BEST AROUND 30 KTS.
SOME SPOTS COULD SEE HIGHER CAPE VALUES. CELL SPLITTING COULD
OCCUR...HOWEVER, THE MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED CELLS. THE ESTIMATED POTENTIAL OF THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE DOWNDRAFT IS AROUND 40 KNOTS.

WITH THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS THAN THE EAST COAST ONE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STORM MOTION FROM THE WEST...WHICH COULD MOVE
INTO THE METRO AREAS SOME OF THE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM IN THE INTERIOR. IF CELL SPLIT OCCURS, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CELL PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN METRO
AREAS.

THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK
OF WEAK TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL...BUT IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IT COULD GENERATE A SOME LOW LEVEL SPIN NEAR
THE COASTLINE... AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WEAK TORNADOES
AND WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH MARGINAL EPISODES IN THE
PAST.

THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES THE SAME.
THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHIFT TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY AS THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN FROM THE NE
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2011/

AVIATION...CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING, BUT MOST OF THESE ARE IN VFR CATEGORY,
THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN SHORT TERM.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AFT 16Z WITH MOST
STORMS OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WENT WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
PBI AND FLL AREA SITES AS GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS SHOULD BE
NEAR THESE AREAS, HOWEVER TSRA CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN MIA AREA
EITHER. KAPF IS THE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
STILL A POSSIBILITY AS STORMS DEVELOP JUST INLAND. WIND SHIFTS TO NE
TONIGHT BEHIND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH VCSH LINGERING AT EAST
COAST SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2011/

SOME STRONG STORMS NORTHEAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY
THIS EVENING. THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WHILE KEEPING THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST METRO AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR AREAS. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE RAISE TO HIGH END CHANCE
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE
SCATTERED POPS FOR TODAY.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN COLD (-10C TO -11C)...AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN
THE MORNING HWO PACKAGE.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING AND WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.
THEREFORE...SCATTERED POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY. FOR REST OF THE CWA...THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS WHILE THE WEST COAST
METRO AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA. THIS
WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. DUE TO
THE SMALL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THIS WEEKEND...PLAN ON ONLY HAVING A SLIGHT 10 POPS AT THIS TIME
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO WORK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE CWA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CWA WATERS. THE SPEEDS WILL BE 5
TO 10 MPH TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA WATERS, EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR-SHORE
GULF WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
TODAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
CRITICAL VALUE DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY WILL ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S FOR
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS WITH 40S OVER
REST OF THE CWA...AS DRY AIR WORKS TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  82  74  84 / 30 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  85  76  85 / 30 10 10 10
MIAMI            74  86  74  85 / 30 10 10 10
NAPLES           70  90  69  90 / 10 10 -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...47/RGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
401 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-302015-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
401 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2011

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE COASTAL
AREAS INCLUDING THE MIAMI METRO AREAS...
...ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
AND ADJACENT WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM LAKE THE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE COASTLINE, WITH LESS COVERAGE ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WIND: GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, EXCEPT POSSIBLY
UP TO 60 MPH AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.

TORNADOES: WEAK TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

HAIL: LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH
COUNTY, WITH SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY ELSEWHERE.

VISIBILITY: REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GLADES, HENDRY AND INLAND SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

AS THE EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY, THIS COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM WITH THE FIRE IN THE GOLDEN
GATE ESTATES AREA. IF THE FIRE IS NOT CONTAINED BY THE TIME THE
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST THIS WEEKEND, IT COULD RESULT IN
EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR A FEW OF THE SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES WEST
OF THE FIRE. RESIDENTS IN THAT AREA ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT
AND STAY TUNED WITH INFORMATION COMING FROM THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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