Special Marine Warning 340, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. THE MOST IMMEDIATE IMPACTS WILL BE FOR TERMINAL KAPF. AN
ACTIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF
KAPF OVER THE GULF WATERS AND STEADILY MOVING NORTHEAST AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS HAVE INDICATED FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ACTIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS AND MOVING STEADILY NORTH ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH TIMING WILL BE TOO DIFFICULT TO
ESTIMATE...ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TAF'S
WILL BE AMENDED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011/

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WERE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM
RINA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. SO PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THE NAPLES REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS OR
FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. SO LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY...PUSHING MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
ARE SHOWING DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER ENERGY IMPULSE WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
MONDAY INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WL INDICATE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SAME SHORT
WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WED THROUGH THURSDAY. &&

AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION.
IN ADVANCE OF IT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE EAST COAST. AT KAPF,
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AROUND 00Z. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WHILE A FEW TSRA ARE EXPECTED, FOR NOW WE WILL
CARRY JUST VCSH AND A CB REMARK IN THE TAFS, GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
COVERAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BEGIN
VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. WILL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE RAPIDLY
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRNT MOVES
TROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
PERIOD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  80  68  78 / 70 90 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  80  71  80 / 70 90 50 40
MIAMI            74  81  71  80 / 70 90 50 40
NAPLES           73  81  66  80 / 80 90 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-291000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
427 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...SLIM RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TORNADOES: A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF A MARCO ISLAND TO FORT LAUDERDALE LINE AS
WIND SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS THREAT IS
MINIMAL BUT JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FLOODING: THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR URBAN
STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR URBAN STREET FLOODING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM OFF THE PALM
BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
527 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

FLZ073-282200-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL
527 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING LOCATED 6 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF FORTYMILE BEND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
  THIS STORM IS ROTATING. FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
  RURAL NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING IS
THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL
THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THIS THUNDERSTORMS IS SHOWING ROTATION...AND IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE THE ROTATION INCREASES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2576 8077 2582 8086 2598 8075 2598 8068
      2596 8068 2596 8063 2586 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 221DEG 9KT 2582 8075

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

FLZ069-073-075-174-290130-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL MAINLAND MONROE FL
830 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
  SOUTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY
  MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF STRONG
  THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES WEST OF CAPE
  ROMANO TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOWER MATECUMBE KEY...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  NORTHWEST CAPE SABLE...
  FLAMINGO...
  WILDERNESS WATERWAY SOUTH...
  MAHOGANY HAMMOCK...
  WILDERNESS WATERWAY NORTH...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

THIS LINE OF STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2585 8153 2589 8155 2590 8166 2598 8162
      2534 8048 2521 8055 2513 8067 2517 8087
      2512 8107 2522 8118 2534 8112 2524 8103
      2524 8091 2525 8091 2535 8107 2541 8102
      2542 8115 2569 8129 2575 8124 2584 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 209DEG 24KT 2569 8213 2495 8079

BAXTER