Alert archive / Mississippi / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

August 10, 2011Clay County, Mississippi

NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at Aug 10, 2011, 3:49 PM CDT for Clay County, Mississippi. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 10, 2011, 3:49 PM CDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired
Aug 10, 2011, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
26 min
Issued by
NWS Memphis, TN

County Clay County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2011-08-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2536 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2011-08-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 38 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2536 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1146 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 10, 3:25 PM CDT, 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 3:25 PM CDT, 24 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIR DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS HAS COVERED THE MID-SOUTH.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS TO THE LOWER 90S IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ASIDE FROM AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS RAIN-FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS BAROCLINIC
ZONE REMAINS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.  CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A THREAT DURING THIS TIME.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE SUGGESTION THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NEVERTHELESS...ALL AREAS REMAIN IN A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CURRENT WORDING IN THE HWO LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS WEATHER
PATTERN...SO WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DECENT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.  MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FOR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE THE ECWMF
BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE EAST A LITTLE FASTER. FOR NOW WILL SIDE
WITH THE SLOWER GFS.

 BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS TAF SITES AS OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS THAN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT JBR/MEM/MKL. ADJUSTED TIMING OF
TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON HIGHEST IMPACT OCCURRING BETWEEN 11/10-13Z
AND TRIMMED BACK THUNDER MENTION TO CBS BASED ON LOWER CONFIDENCE
OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  90  73  92 /  40  40  20  40
MKL  68  89  67  90 /  40  40  20  40
JBR  69  86  70  89 /  40  40  20  40
TUP  72  91  71  92 /  40  40  20  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 10, 1:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
120 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
120 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:21 PM CDT, 28 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

TNZ050>054-102045-
CHESTER TN-CROCKETT TN-HAYWOOD TN-HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-
321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED
OVER BELLS AT 321 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...CROCKETT...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON AND MADISON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HENDERSON AND JACKSON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8868 3570 8919 3584 8903 3560 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 302DEG 27KT 3570 8902
Local storm report, Aug 10, 3:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 10, 5:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGChickasaw30 min
Aug 10, 3:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGChester, Madison24 min
Aug 10, 3:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGChester, Crockett, Haywood, Henderson, Madison37 min
Aug 10, 4:42 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGHardin33 min
Aug 10, 8:35 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGCross, Poinsett, St. Francis25 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Mississippi, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.