Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011/

UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION HAS
NECESSITATED AN UPDATE IN TEMPERATURES. HAVE SHADED A FEW DEGREES
OFF THE HIGHS.

 BELLES

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2011/

SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A MCS IS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND AT LEAST SOME OF IT SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST
AREA IS BETWEEN TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ONE TO OUR NORTH AND ONE TO
OUR SOUTH. AT LEAST ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE MAIN THREAT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL HEAD
BACK SOUTH FOR GOOD SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY AND LESS HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS TAF SITES AS OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LESS THAN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT JBR/MEM/MKL. ADJUSTED TIMING OF
TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON HIGHEST IMPACT OCCURRING BETWEEN 11/10-13Z
AND TRIMMED BACK THUNDER MENTION TO CBS BASED ON LOWER CONFIDENCE
OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

CJC
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  91  74  93 /  50  40  20  30
MKL  67  88  69  91 /  50  40  20  30
JBR  70  87  71  90 /  60  40  20  30
TUP  73  94  72  94 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
120 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
120 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

TNZ050>054-102045-
CHESTER TN-CROCKETT TN-HAYWOOD TN-HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-
321 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED
OVER BELLS AT 321 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...CROCKETT...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON AND MADISON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HENDERSON AND JACKSON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8868 3570 8919 3584 8903 3560 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 302DEG 27KT 3570 8902