Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS STRETCHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AIR MASS THAT IS STILL
QUITE UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS. BELIEVE MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE THERMODYNAMICS TO BE THE ONLY FORCING
MECHANISMS. WILL KEEP TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ONGOING FFA ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. CELLS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED COPIUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS STORMS LAST NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE ADVANCEMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...MAY
NEED TO EXTEND FFA FURTHER NORTH. WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PLACING THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH BACK INTO THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING INCREASING INSTABILITY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1200 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -6 C...AND A 50 KT LLJ
SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE FORCING WILL BE THE MITIGATING FACTOR ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST OUT
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.

ANOTHER MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF PLACEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED CLOSED H5 LOW WHILE THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER OPEN WAVE. THE ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO OCCLUDE
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW SLOWING DOWN THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE QPF.

TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW...AWAITING BETTER AGREEMENT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY HOWEVER AS THE
MIDSOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

CCD

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE KTUP AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM PREVAILING THUNDER FOR
NOW AND JUST MENTION VCTS.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  55  75  63  84 /  50  50  20  10
MKL  50  74  61  83 /  30  50  30  20
JBR  51  69  59  81 /  30  50  40  30
TUP  57  80  63  83 /  70  50  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PHILLIPS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1205 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-211915-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1205 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LULA TO NEW ALBANY TO FULTON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS WELL AS A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING WILL
BE MOST LIKELY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

CCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRAWFORDSVILLE          35.23N 90.33W
04/19/2011                   CRITTENDEN         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF CRAWFORDSVILLE. A FEW TREES
            FELL ON VACANT HOUSES.

1038 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARION                  35.21N 90.20W
04/19/2011                   CRITTENDEN         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TRACTOR TRAILERS WERE BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 55 NEAR
            MARION. A ROOF ON A BUSINESS WAS BLOWN OFF. TREES AND
            POWER LINES ARE DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W WEST MEMPHIS        35.15N 90.22W
04/19/2011                   CRITTENDEN         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A MOBILE HOME WAS BLOWN IN HALF NEAR LEHI...CLOSE TO THE
            INTERSECTION OF HWY 70 AND INTERSTATE 40. A TRACTOR
            TRAILER WAS ALSO BLOWN OVER IN THE VICINITY.

1127 AM     HAIL             TULA                    34.23N 89.37W
04/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE
            TOWN OF TULA.

1222 PM     HAIL             4 S ALGOMA              34.12N 89.04W
04/20/2011  M1.50 INCH       PONTOTOC           MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IN THE TOWN OF WALLFIELD.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
124 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE KEISER             35.73N 90.03W
04/19/2011                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORAGE BUILDINGS WERE BLOWN OVER...A GAS STATION AWNING
            WAS BLOWN OFF...AND 2 GAS PUMPS AT A SEPARATE GAS STATION
            WERE BLOWN OVER. DAMAGE WAS JUST WEST OF OSCEOLA.

1052 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRAYSER                 35.22N 89.97W
04/19/2011                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LARGE TREE FELL ONTO A HOUSE NEAR FRAYSER BLVD. MEDIA
            IS REPORTING OTHER DAMAGE IN THE AREA.

1103 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIGHTON                35.48N 89.74W
04/19/2011                   TIPTON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF BRIGHTON.

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW TRENTON           36.05N 88.97W
04/19/2011                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN BETWEEN HWY 185 AND HWY 45 NEAR THE COUNTRY
            CLUB.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
203 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             VERONA                  34.19N 88.72W
04/20/2011  E1.50 INCH       LEE                MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
212 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             VERONA                  34.19N 88.72W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 45
            AND MAIN STREET IN VERONA.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             MILLINGTON              35.33N 89.89W
04/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

TNZ049-088-089-202100-
FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-TIPTON TN-
334 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED 5
MILES WEST OF ARLINGTON AT 334 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE...SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8951 3527 8945 3526 8978 3535 8981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 255DEG 22KT 3531 8971

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