Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Memphis, TN

504 
WGUS74 KMEG 201943
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

MSC017-081-095-115-202100-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110420T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEE MS-PONTOTOC MS-MONROE MS-CHICKASAW MS-
243 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHICKASAW...NORTHWESTERN MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN PONTOTOC
AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 243 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
OF NORTHEASTERN CHICKASAW...NORTHWESTERN MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN
PONTOTOC AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT SO THEY CAN 
RELAY THAT REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8859 3399 8865 3406 8907 3419 8886

$$
BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1245 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011/

UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING. COLD
FRONT THAT SURGED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS STALLED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH RIVERS AND CREEKS ALREADY SWOLLEN
AND SOILS SATURATED...DECIDED TO KEEP ONGOING FFA ONLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WEST HELENA ARKANSAS TO OXFORD TO FULTON MISSISSIPPI
LINE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE DUE TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ATTM.

CCD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...BUT HAS DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING LITTLE ROCK AND JACKSON
TENNESSEE BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO FOCUS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...AND ARE AS HIGH AS 1.7 INCHES ACCORDING TO GFS GUIDANCE.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN EXTREME RAINFALL RATES ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN HAS...OR IS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA...SO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO FLOODING...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CAP
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT. DAMAGING
WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND
UNORGANIZED BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE PLAINS.THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY SO STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTH
MISSOURI.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE KTUP AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM PREVAILING THUNDER FOR
NOW AND JUST MENTION VCTS.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  55  75  65 /  30  60  50  20
MKL  70  50  74  63 /  20  30  50  30
JBR  66  51  69  61 /  10  30  50  40
TUP  77  57  80  65 /  50  70  50  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PHILLIPS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1205 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-211915-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1205 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LULA TO NEW ALBANY TO FULTON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AS WELL AS A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING WILL
BE MOST LIKELY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

CCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1054 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTINGDON              36.01N 88.41W
04/19/2011                   CARROLL            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES IN THE TOWN OF HUNTINGDON. PENNY SIZE HAIL
            WAS ALSO REPORTED.

0454 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
04/20/2011                   MONROE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE HWY 278 RAILROAD UNDERPASS BEGAN TO FLOOD AT 454 AM
            ACCORDING TO THE AMORY POLICE DEPARTMENT.

1042 AM     HAIL             4 NW OXFORD             34.40N 89.57W
04/20/2011  E1.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A STORM SPOTTER NEAR
            COLLEGE HILL...RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HAIL             1 SE TAYLOR             34.26N 89.57W
04/20/2011  E1.25 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE WAS REPORTED BY A
            STORM SPOTTER NEAR THE TOWN OF TAYLOR.

&&

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1115 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     HAIL             2 N PARIS               34.21N 89.47W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1130 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N PARIS               34.21N 89.47W
04/20/2011                   LAFAYETTE          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1129 AM     HAIL             3 S TULA                34.19N 89.37W
04/20/2011  E1.25 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     HAIL             RANDOLPH                34.18N 89.17W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       PONTOTOC           MS   POST OFFICE

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRAWFORDSVILLE          35.23N 90.33W
04/19/2011                   CRITTENDEN         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF CRAWFORDSVILLE. A FEW TREES
            FELL ON VACANT HOUSES.

1038 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARION                  35.21N 90.20W
04/19/2011                   CRITTENDEN         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TRACTOR TRAILERS WERE BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 55 NEAR
            MARION. A ROOF ON A BUSINESS WAS BLOWN OFF. TREES AND
            POWER LINES ARE DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W WEST MEMPHIS        35.15N 90.22W
04/19/2011                   CRITTENDEN         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A MOBILE HOME WAS BLOWN IN HALF NEAR LEHI...CLOSE TO THE
            INTERSECTION OF HWY 70 AND INTERSTATE 40. A TRACTOR
            TRAILER WAS ALSO BLOWN OVER IN THE VICINITY.

1127 AM     HAIL             TULA                    34.23N 89.37W
04/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE
            TOWN OF TULA.

1222 PM     HAIL             4 S ALGOMA              34.12N 89.04W
04/20/2011  M1.50 INCH       PONTOTOC           MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IN THE TOWN OF WALLFIELD.

&&

RRH