Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
924 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
NEAR THE 300K SURFACE. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
MAINLY NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MANY OF
THESE CELLS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS BEING REPORTED IN THE LITTLE ROCK AREA. THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 OVER ECTRL
ARKANSAS...AND 1000 IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING
SHOWS CAPE BEING GENERATED FROM ABOUT THE 770 MB LEVEL...SO QUITE
ELEVATED AND LARGE HAIL IS THE ONLY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE 700-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES CAN MIGRATE
INTO NORTHERN MS...BUT IF THEY DO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
INCREASE. SPC SWO DY1 PLACES MUCH OF NORTHERN MS AND ECTRL AR
UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TRANSITIONS TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. UPDATED THE GRIDS
EARLIER TO MENTION SMALL HAIL AND TO BEEF UP THE THUNDER THREAT
FOR THIS EVENING SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO PLACE A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BACK THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHERN COAST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR/UPPER
AIR PROFILER TRENDS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
NEARLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
315-320K SURFACES INDICATING INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHORT
TERM MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE AREAS.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FREE WEATHER BACK TO THE
MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT ALONG THE
GULF COAST MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEST 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 100 KT 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1100-1300 J/KG ALL SUGGEST AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE MINI-SUPERCELLULAR TYPE
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE QUALITY
OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. AT THIS TIME THE AREA UNDER THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-40 LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BASED ON THESE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THREATS AS THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. STAY TUNED...

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AND RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA AS LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
AT EARLY EVENING. UNLIKE YESTERDAY EVENING... THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WAS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MIDSOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN MS.
OVER THE MIDSOUTH...TSRA WAS FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MS DELTA. THIS TSRA WAS
ROOTED IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF THE JBR/MKL TAFS DUE TO LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR MEM AND TUP... TS THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL
AFTER 03Z...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
WITH RAIN WORKING OVER THE AIRMASS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TS IN A
LITTLE LONGER THOUGH... WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE.

SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  38  60  42  62 / 100  10  10  50
MKL  36  59  37  60 / 100  10  10  50
JBR  35  56  39  52 / 100  10  10  60
TUP  42  63  43  69 / 100  10  10  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
911 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
911 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
FORREST CITY ARKANSAS TO BOONEVILLE MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH MAJOR
FLOODING AT OSCEOLA ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

MSZ011-012-280430-
PANOLA MS-QUITMAN MS-
1107 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED
OVER DARLING AT 1107 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN PANOLA AND QUITMAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BATESVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 9034 3432 9035 3440 9040 3443 9039
      3444 9037 3443 9030 3444 9030 3454 9012
      3452 8991 3433 8993 3418 8989 3417 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 255DEG 48KT 3435 9026

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

MSZ010>012-020-280500-
PANOLA MS-COAHOMA MS-QUITMAN MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTH CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF DUBLIN AT 1127 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 70
MPH.

PEOPLE IN COAHOMA...PANOLA...QUITMAN AND TALLAHATCHIE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR CHARLESTON AND CLARKSDALE...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 9066 3406 9067 3424 9061 3426 9021
      3423 8998 3398 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 270DEG 59KT 3410 9055

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     HAIL             TISHOMINGO              34.64N 88.23W
03/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       TISHOMINGO         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     HAIL             TISHOMINGO              34.64N 88.23W
03/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       TISHOMINGO         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     HAIL             TUPELO                  34.26N 88.73W
03/27/2011  M1.25 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

MSZ023-280530-
CHICKASAW MS-
1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR...

  CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED
OVER PYLAND AT 1158 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHICKASAW COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOUSTON AND
OKOLONA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8914 3382 8913 3398 8913 3408 8879
      3408 8872 3381 8871 3381 8891 3379 8892
      3378 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 254DEG 54KT 3390 8903