Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO PLACE A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BACK THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHERN COAST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR/UPPER
AIR PROFILER TRENDS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
NEARLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT ARE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
315-320K SURFACES INDICATING INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHORT
TERM MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE AREAS.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FREE WEATHER BACK TO THE
MID SOUTH FOR MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT ALONG THE
GULF COAST MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEST 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 100 KT 300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1100-1300 J/KG ALL SUGGEST AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE MINI-SUPERCELLULAR TYPE
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SEVERAL QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE QUALITY
OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. AT THIS TIME THE AREA UNDER THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-40 LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
BASED ON THESE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THREATS AS THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. STAY TUNED...

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AND RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA AS LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
AT EARLY EVENING. UNLIKE YESTERDAY EVENING... THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WAS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MIDSOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN MS.
OVER THE MIDSOUTH...TSRA WAS FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MS DELTA. THIS TSRA WAS
ROOTED IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF THE JBR/MKL TAFS DUE TO LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR MEM AND TUP... TS THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL
AFTER 03Z...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
WITH RAIN WORKING OVER THE AIRMASS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TS IN A
LITTLE LONGER THOUGH... WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE.

SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  38  60  42  62 / 100  10  10  50
MKL  36  59  37  60 / 100  10  10  50
JBR  35  56  39  52 / 100  10  10  60
TUP  42  63  43  69 / 100  10  10  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
516 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SOME STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH MAJOR
FLOODING AT OSCEOLA ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

CJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
749 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ARZ058-MSZ007-008-011-012-280115-
PHILLIPS AR-TUNICA MS-TATE MS-PANOLA MS-QUITMAN MS-
749 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  CENTRAL TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 4
MILES WEST OF WEST HELENA AT 750 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN PANOLA...PHILLIPS...QUITMAN...TATE AND TUNICA COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HELENA...ST FRANCIS NATIONAL PARK AND WEST
HELENA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BEAVERDAM LAKE AND FLOWER LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 9058 3466 9056 3466 9054 3464 9054
      3464 9051 3467 9048 3470 9016 3447 9015
      3449 9050 3453 9057 3450 9059 3450 9072
      3463 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 265DEG 45KT 3455 9067

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

MSZ022-023-280200-
CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
818 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTH OF SABOUGLA AT 818 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
HOUSTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8951 3379 8951 3392 8948 3401 8882
      3381 8878 3381 8891 3375 8893 3375 8901
      3373 8903 3374 8917 3372 8918 3372 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 255DEG 44KT 3369 8947

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
831 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

MSZ024-280215-
MONROE MS-
831 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRAIRIE AT 831 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR ABERDEEN...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES ABERDEEN LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 8872 3385 8871 3399 8821 3378 8823
      3374 8825 3374 8831 3372 8832 3368 8855
      3368 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 254DEG 41KT 3373 8877

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
850 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

MSZ007-010>012-280215-
TUNICA MS-PANOLA MS-COAHOMA MS-QUITMAN MS-
850 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE WAS LOCATED
9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUNDEE AT 850 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN COAHOMA...PANOLA...QUITMAN AND TUNICA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES MOON LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 9059 3445 9057 3447 9058 3449 9058
      3456 9024 3456 9001 3434 9010 3432 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 253DEG 48KT 3444 9050

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
857 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             ABERDEEN                33.83N 88.55W
03/27/2011  E0.88 INCH       MONROE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ARZ048-049-280245-
LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
901 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE WAS LOCATED 8
MILES WEST OF GARRET GROVE AT 901 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
FORREST CITY...HUGHES...MADISON AND PALESTINE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 9044 3489 9046 3475 9111 3487 9110
      3488 9112 3491 9112 3491 9115 3492 9116
      3493 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 254DEG 54KT 3483 9120