Severe Thunderstorm Warning 725, NWS Memphis, TN

373 
WWUS54 KMEG 252103
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

ARC123-252114-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0725.000000T0000Z-110925T2130Z/
ST. FRANCIS AR-
403 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 404 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3556 9032 3545 9028 3544 9029 3544 9027
      3535 9019 3517 9012 3514 9073 3515 9077
      3532 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 247DEG 45KT 3529 9058

$$

ARC035-037-111-252130-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0725.000000T0000Z-110925T2130Z/
CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
403 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...EASTERN CROSS AND NORTHERN CRITTENDEN
COUNTIES...

AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MC
DONALD...OR NEAR PARKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...
MARION...PARKIN...TURRELL...TYRONZA...WYNNE...STACY...BOAT RUN...
SPEAR LAKE...WILBETH...DUB...DECKERVILLE...BEASLEY AND BIRDEYE.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR WAPANOCCA LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 9032 3545 9028 3544 9029 3544 9027
      3535 9019 3517 9012 3514 9073 3515 9077
      3532 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 247DEG 45KT 3529 9058

$$

098 
WWUS54 KMEG 252116
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

ARC035-037-111-252130-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0725.000000T0000Z-110925T2130Z/
CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
416 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT...EASTERN CROSS AND NORTHERN CRITTENDEN
COUNTIES...

AT 416 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR PARKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...
MARION...PARKIN...TURRELL...TYRONZA...STACY...BOAT RUN...SPEAR
LAKE...WILBETH...DUB...DECKERVILLE...BEASLEY...BIRDEYE AND COLTON.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR WAPANOCCA LAKE.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR WYNNE WITH THIS STORM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 9032 3545 9028 3544 9029 3544 9027
      3535 9019 3517 9012 3514 9067 3535 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 247DEG 45KT 3531 9050

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
229 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO HOT
SPRINGS ARKANSAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NARROW
WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT. THE BEST LOCATION
TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WHERE CLOUD BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED ALLOWING
FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO THE HIGH HELICITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA
DUE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SHORTLY WHICH MAY PUSH THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER LOCATION TO JUST
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS THANKS TO CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS MAY PREVENT CLOUDS FROM CLEARING AS RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS GOING BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW THAT FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL REMOVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER LOW COULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AT THE TIME. THE
GFS REMAINS DRY WHILE THE NAM INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. MODELS INDICATE THE LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE
FRONT TO COME THROUGH DRY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY PROVIDING PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING THE BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRAS AND TSRA PREVAIL OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH ATTM THOUGH THE TAF SITES ARE RELATIVELY
QUIET FOR THE MOMENT. A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. ATTM IT LOOK LIKE THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE WILL
PROBABLY BE TO THE SW OF MEMPHIS TOWARD SOUTHERN ARKANSAS PERHAPS
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT
HEADS EAST. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR CONDS OUTSIDE TSRAS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES EACH SITE THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH LEFTOVER
SHRAS. CONDS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR FROM NW TO SE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AT 12-14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT AT KJBR WHERE LIGHTER
ESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE N OR NW. THANKS TO THE CWSU FOR COLLABORATION.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  56  76  57  82 /  80  10  10  10
MKL  55  73  49  80 /  90  10  10  10
JBR  49  73  52  80 /  40  10  10  10
TUP  64  75  55  83 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO RIPLEY TENNESSEE AND TO WEST OF A LINE
FROM HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE TO PITTSBORO MISSISSIPPI. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PERHAPS INTO
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. IN THIS AREA...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THAT MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

KRM