Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1249 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING OVER NORTH MS... POSSIBLY WEST TN...

TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTH MS...
BECOMING ESPECIALLY CONCERNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MS
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME COLOCATED
WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING INSTABILITY NOSING EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL FEED NORTH
INTO A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. EXPECT INCREASINGLY SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE INSTABILITY / WARM FRONT BUILDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE... PORTIONS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN
RIVER MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN PDS TORNADO WATCH 232. PER LATEST
MCD FROM SPC... AN ADDITIONAL TOR WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEST TN
IF AIRMASS RECOVERS QUICKLY ENOUGH.

NORTH AND WEST OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE... EXPECT A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THREAT OVER NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL... WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT MAY KEEP PORTIONS
OF THESE AREAS BRIEFLY FREE OF STORMS IN THE INTERIM. A SECONDARY...
LESS INTENSE SQUALL LINE FORMING IN THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS THROUGH WESTERN
ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SPC HAS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE
REGION ON TOP OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND ADVISORY SO WILL CANCEL THAT PRODUCT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS AND USHERING
WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A NEW STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST. THIS NEW STORMS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

SHORT TERM TAFS WILL BE AMENDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT A ALL SITES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.

JDS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  51  73  53 / 100  20  10   0
MKL  75  46  71  46 / 100  30  10   0
JBR  69  47  72  49 / 100  20  10   0
TUP  81  52  73  49 / 100  30  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
349 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH EAST OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE TO ASHLAND
MISSISSIPPI TO HOUSTON MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF A LINE FROM HUNTINGDON
TENNESSEE TO RIPLEY TENNESSEE TO TUNICA MISSISSIPPI TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING
STRESS ON LEVEES. SIGNIFICANT... POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RIVER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS RUN
OFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
241 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TORNADO          9 S OXFORD              34.23N 89.53W
04/27/2011                   LAFAYETTE          MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            CONFIRMED TRAILER DESTROYED. HOUSE PARTIALLY DESTROYED.
            MANY TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TRENTON                 35.97N 88.94W
04/27/2011                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            152 W, MCALLISTER, AND NORTH COLLEGE STREET CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER COVERING ROADS.

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
304 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TORNADO          2 E RIENZI              34.77N 88.50W
04/27/2011                   ALCORN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT HWY 356 EAST OF RIENZI. DEBRIS
            IN THE AIR WEST OF LEEDY

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
04/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             CALHOUN CITY            33.86N 89.31W
04/27/2011  E1.75 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   PUBLIC

&&

SVR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
309 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CALHOUN CITY            33.86N 89.31W
04/27/2011                   CALHOUN            MS   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

&&

SVR