Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Memphis, TN

630 
WWUS54 KMEG 262112
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
412 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARC035-037-093-111-123-262145-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0258.000000T0000Z-110426T2145Z/
CROSS AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-POINSETT AR-
412 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN POINSETT...WESTERN CRITTENDEN...EASTERN ST. FRANCIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN CROSS COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CLARKS CORNER...OR NEAR VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BIRDSONG...
EARLE...HUGHES...MADISON...MARKED TREE...PARKIN...TURRELL...
TYRONZA...WHITTON...DENWOOD...DIMPLE...FRENCHMANS BAYOU...STACY AND
MC CORMICK.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR WAPANOCCA LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 9063 3546 9012 3544 9014 3542 9017
      3539 9017 3490 9047 3498 9079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 195DEG 29KT 3517 9061

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
352 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT AND LIKELY PROTRACTED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ABOUT
TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH....

AT DISCUSSION TIME... THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG ALONG A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX... ACROSS SOUTHERN
AR... INTO NORTHWEST TN. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AND NORTHERN MS LED TO MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. SHEAR WAS
MARGINAL... WITH 3KM HELICITY VALUES OF 150 M2/S/2. THIS SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY THROUGH SUNSET... WITH THE DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AR. THIS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AR. DESPITE THE INITIALLY MARGINAL SHEAR... LARGE CAPES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR STRONG... LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES RAMP UP IN
EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...ACCOMPANIED BY MUCAPE IN NEAR OR IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL VALUES.

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
18Z NAM BRINGS THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER BY
06Z...1 AM CDT. INITIAL SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED
TORNADO RISK WILL HAVE MOVED UP THE ARKANSAS DELTA TO WESTERN KY
BY 06Z...WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST AR.
THIS LATTER SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND THE TN RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM IS SLOWER BRINGING THE MAIN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROF THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A 994MB SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO LIFT FROM NEAR FT SMITH AR AT 15Z...TO NORTHEAST AR BY 21Z.
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD EXTEND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FURTHER IN TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...AS IT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE I40 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SQUALL
LINE WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER
NORTH OR NORTHEAST MS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN 80KT
MIDLEVEL REAR INFLOW JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. THE
18Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF CONTINUED TO GOOD AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

MAIN UPPER TROF WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST MO BY 06Z THURSDAY. MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SUB SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS.

FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MADE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL 26/21Z.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AFFECT TAF SITES.
TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...PREVIOUS TIMING IS REASONABLE BUT NARROWED
TEMPO GROUPS BACK TO 2 HOUR PERIODS. THIS MAY LIKELY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE
TRENDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO EVOLVE. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING AROUND 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS. A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  68  75  50  74 / 100 100  20   0
MKL  67  76  45  71 / 100 100  30   0
JBR  60  70  46  72 / 100 100  20   0
TUP  68  80  49  74 / 100 100  30   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH.

THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. AN ENHANCED RISK
OF STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT... LIKELY PROVIDING
AND ADDITIONAL ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT... STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS SUFFICIENT
TO TOPPLE LARGE TREES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING STRESS
ON LEVEES. SIGNIFICANT... POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RIVER FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS RUN OFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL UPSTREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
TORNADOES... DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ...A SQUALL LINE WILL CREATE
A PRIMARY RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER AREAS OF WEST
TENNESSEE TO THE EAST OF MEMPHIS... AND OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... STORM SPOTTERS...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ048-049-262100-
LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
308 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF GARRET GROVE AT 309 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
FORREST CITY...MADISON AND PALESTINE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 9115 3501 9105 3514 9104 3515 9082
      3505 9059 3484 9051 3471 9105 3473 9106
      3474 9111 3487 9110 3488 9112 3491 9112
      3492 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 233DEG 30KT 3478 9126