Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Memphis, TN

492 
WGUS54 KMEG 260218 CCA
FFWMEG
ARC021-260515-
/O.COR.KMEG.FF.W.0063.110426T0215Z-110426T0515Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
915 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OVERTOPPED LEVEES UPSTREAM OF...
  CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 915 PM CDT...LEVEES ON THE BLACK RIVER ARE BEING OVERTOPPED IN 
BUTLER COUNTY MISSOURI. WATER OVERTOPPING LEVEES WILL SPREAD 
DOWNSTREAM INTO CLAY COUNTY AND WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE 
BLACK RIVER.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MCDOUGAL

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9061 3650 9032 3644 9037 3643 9060

$$

RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...
..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK / EXTENDED FLOODING EVENT
ABOUT TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...

GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MIDAFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
INTO TWO LINEAR CLUSTERS. EXPECT THE TWO LINEAR CLUSTERS TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SOLID QLCS BY THE TIME IT ENTERS EASTERN AR
EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH
INTO TORNADO WATCH 205... BASED ON PROXIMITY TO THE LEADING
CLUSTER OF STORMS.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXPECT POST SQUALL LINE COLD OUTFLOW POOL TO
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY... WITH A WARM FRONT LIKELY LIFTING INTO THE
TO THE I40 CORRIDOR BY NOON... AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT... REPRESENTING AN AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE HELICITY...BUT EXPECT ENHANCED
HELICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY IMPROVES MARKEDLY BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
WITH A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT... TAKING IT THROUGH NORTHEAST AR.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD REPRESENT AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT FOR
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND EVEN THE MEMPHIS METRO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ECMWF CONCURS... BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN EITHER MODEL. GIVEN THE NEAR CONCURRENT
NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...HAVE STUCK WITH A MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION TO THE
MODERATE RISK WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO.

EXPECT A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE TO FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
LIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A SHARP MIDLEVEL TROF. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS... QLCS TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL... FEW CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...PARTICULARLY
OVER AREAS SUCH AS FAR NORTHEAST AR THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP
TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIKELY FALL TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON OR ABOUT SUNDAY BASED ON GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER AR WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A
CONSOLIDATED LINE OF TSRA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST HRRR
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE LINE WILL NOT MAKE INTO MEM UNTIL
04Z OR 05Z. THIS TIMING MAY NEED TO BE MOVED FORWARD AN HOUR IF
A CONVECTIVE BOW BECOMES DOMINATE OVER SOUTHERN AR.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  68  81  67  75 / 100  60  90 100
MKL  65  80  67  75 / 100  70  90 100
JBR  62  78  60  70 / 100  60  90  90
TUP  66  84  71  76 /  80  60  80 100

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LAKE-OBION.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261645-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
346 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER AREAS TO THE WEST OF A UNION CITY TO JACKSON TENNESSEE... TO
CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE.

STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MODERATE
RISK AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHER THREATS ACROSS ALL
THE MIDSOUTH INCLUDE VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING STRAIT LINE WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO TOPPLE LARGE TREES. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH...
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TUPELO MISSISSIPPI TO GLENDORA
MISSISSIPPI. SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF
STRONG LONG TRACKED TORNADOES LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF
TORNADOES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE DELTA.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE MIDSOUTH...RESULTING IN THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSULT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR DETAILS.

AREA RIVERS WILL RISE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PUTTING STRESS ON LEVEES.
SIGNIFICANT... POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ON THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
UPSTREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE BARTLETT           35.18N 89.80W
04/25/2011                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE BELLE TREES NEIGBORHOOD.

1240 PM     TORNADO          COLLIERVILLE            35.06N 89.68W
04/25/2011                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED TO EMA BY LAW ENFOREMENT

1241 PM     TORNADO          BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W
04/25/2011                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED TO EMA BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

1246 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
04/25/2011                   DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR THE KROGER NEAR COMMERCE AND
            MT PLEASANT.

1246 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N COLLIERVILLE        35.07N 89.68W
04/25/2011                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55 MPH. LOW LYING FUNNEL CLOUD AT
            HOUSTON LEVEE AND WOLF RIVER.

0238 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 W HUNTINGDON          36.01N 88.52W
04/25/2011                   CARROLL            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR MCLEMORESVILLE.

0238 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     NW VALE                 36.12N 88.27W
04/25/2011                   CARROLL            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR MIXIE 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF VALE.

&&

ZEI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TORNADO          4 SW ALAMO              35.74N 89.17W
04/25/2011                   CROCKETT           TN   STORM CHASER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO BETWEEN JOHNSON GROVE RD AND HWY 88.
            DAMAGE TO TWO HOUSES AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

JAB