Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Memphis, TN

514 
WWUS54 KMEG 150931
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ARC123-150941-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-110415T0945Z/
ST. FRANCIS AR-
431 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 431 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3435 9100 3449 9101 3490 9049 3491 9041
      3490 9041 3483 9041 3489 9045 3479 9049
      3480 9055 3463 9059 3458 9056 3445 9057
      3432 9069 3438 9069 3436 9076 3422 9083
      3424 9093 3415 9085 3419 9093 3412 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0931Z 247DEG 35KT 3474 9044 3442 9088
          3418 9101

$$

ARC077-107-150945-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-110415T0945Z/
PHILLIPS AR-LEE AR-
431 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN LEE AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

AT 431 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST FRANCIS NATIONAL PARK TO 8 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF ELAINE TO WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELAINE...
HELENA...LAGRANGE...LAKE VIEW...LEXA...MARVELL...WATKINS CORNER...
WEST HELENA...WESTOVER...QUARLES...JEFFERSONVILLE...HALESIDE...
COUNCIL AND SPRING CREEK.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR MIDWAY LAKE AND OLD TOWN LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 9100 3449 9101 3490 9049 3491 9041
      3490 9041 3483 9041 3489 9045 3479 9049
      3480 9055 3463 9059 3458 9056 3445 9057
      3432 9069 3438 9069 3436 9076 3422 9083
      3424 9093 3415 9085 3419 9093 3412 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0931Z 247DEG 35KT 3474 9044 3442 9088
          3418 9101

$$
BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FORWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE QLCS WAS HEADED RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL AR AT DISCUSSION TIME...WELL AHEAD OF THE 00Z NAM AND 03Z
HRRR FORECAST SOLUTIONS. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 15Z...10 AM CDT.

TIMING ISSUES ASIDE... NAM MODEL SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR KC MO. 00Z NAM PROGGED MIXED LAYER MUCAPES OF
1500 J/KG...WITH POCKETS OF 3000 J/KG...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT
WILL NOT LIKELY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MORNING/S SEVERE
QLCS.

FEW CHANGES MADE BEYOND TODAY. AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND... EXPECT
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS NEAR
STATIONARY FRONT OSCILLATES OVER THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST
AREA SO HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR KMEM AND KJBR FOR FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START AROUND NOON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  78  48  65  47 /  90  10  10   0
MKL  73  47  61  40 / 100  50  10   0
JBR  74  46  63  42 /  60  20  10   0
TUP  79  49  67  41 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
239 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-160945-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
239 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TODAY... AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDSOUTH. THE PRIMARY RISKS INCLUDE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO 80
MPH... TORNADOES... AND LARGE HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLY BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT /EARLY SATURDAY MORNING/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1040 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-151045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
1040 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA WILL INTENSIFY AND
MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW. A WARM FRONT WILL
SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THIS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH... SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE SOUTH
AND WEST OF A WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS...TO SOMERVILLE TENNESSEE...TO
A COFFEEVILLE MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. THIS WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS WILL GIVE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.

THEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY NOON. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A SECOND WAVE OF STORMS
THAT WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS. AS
THE STORMS TRACK EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THEIR MAY BE AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT FOR THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. KNOW WHAT TO DO AND WHERE TO GO IF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATENS. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS IN WORKING
CONDITION...AND REMEMBER TO TAKE SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST LEVEL IN YOUR HOME OR WORKPLACE. MOBILE HOMES ARE
ESPECIALLY NOT A SAFE PLACE TO BE WHEN THERE IS THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS ANTICIPATED WEATHER
SITUATION. THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THE WEB MAY BE OBTAINED
AT WEATHER.GOV/MEMPHIS.

JAB