Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

119 
WWUS54 KMAF 080525
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1125 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXC003-135-317-329-080545-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-111108T0545Z/
ECTOR TX-MARTIN TX-MIDLAND TX-ANDREWS TX-
1125 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS...NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND...SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN
AND EASTERN ECTOR COUNTIES...

AT 1123 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MISSION DORADO...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF ODESSA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...EAST
CENTRAL ECTOR COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN
ECTOR COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 10225 3216 10196 3170 10254 3179 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 227DEG 34KT 3195 10233

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
940 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR WT874 VT/081100Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. ZFP ETC. UPDATED TO
REFLECT TORNADO WATCH.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

DRYLINE LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM A LAMESA...KERMIT...MARATHON...TO
BOQUILLAS LINE. INTENSE MID LEVEL ASCENT /FORCED THROUGH AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 100+ KT JET TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER FOUR CORNERS LOW/ RESULTING IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A
MID LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SCT SHRA/MAYBE TSRA EVOLVING UNDER THIS
REGION. JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE BL PARCELS ARE LIFTED INTO THIS
REGION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AOA 6 C/KM. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF OVER 50
KTS ALONG WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WILL FAVOR DISCRETE STORMS
AT FIRST...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION...HOWEVER...REGARDING THE EXTENT
OF DCAPE...PARTICULARLY IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER...WHICH WOULD TEND
TO INCREASE FFD POTENTIAL...THUS UNDERCUTTING MESOS. NEVERTHELESS...
RIGHT MOVING DAUGHTER CELLS OFF OF INITIAL SPLITS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN ENHANCED STORM RELATIVE SUBCLOUD
HELICITY. HAIL 1-2" IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 KTS ARE
LIKELY WITH INTENSE CELLS. PER RAPID STORM MOTION OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH 3/4" AT MOST. STRONG SHEAR/UPDRAFTS IN THE
CHARGING REGION WILL MAKE UP FOR MODEST WATER MASS...AND FREQUENT
CG ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSHEAR
CG'S FROM THE ANVIL/LEADING EDGE OF CORES.

AFTER 06-07Z...LOOK FOR THE PACIFIC FRONT TO ACCELERATE EAST AND
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE OVER NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE EASTERN BASIN/ WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS SEEING
SEVERE CHANCES DIMINISH AROUND 08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              45  65  35  56  /  50  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  63  30  54  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  73  39  61  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  66  34  57  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  55  30  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   36  63  32  53  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  60  24  51  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    40  64  33  55  /  40  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  41  64  34  55  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    39  67  33  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

67/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-090045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
642 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011 /542 PM MST MON NOV 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA...TO MIDLAND...TO DRYDEN LINE.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND