Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

.UPDATE...

FAIRLY MAJOR OVERHAUL TO THE FCST TODAY AS ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF NW AR. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN COMPOSITE
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BNDRY NOW SITS FROM JUST S OF A BATESVILLE TO
FORT SMITH LINE WITH ANOTHER OUTFLOW BNDRY NOTED IN CEN AR. NORTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
REACH ABOVE 95F.

ACROSS THE I40 CORRIDOR...THE SHALLOW OUTFLOW BNDRYS SHOULD MIX
BACK OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH RESIDUAL MSTR CONVERGENCE/
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THIS BNDRY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DAMAGE INCURRED WITH STORM
COLLAPSES YDAY...HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION TO THE AFTERNOON HRS TODAY
FOR ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

ALL HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT AS THE COOLER HIGHS IN
THE NORTH WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY MUCH HIGHER DEWPTS.

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF HIGH
CLOUDS/SOME MIDDECK TODAY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING BETWEEN 5000 AND
6000 FEET. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

A FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER TONIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTSIDE OF WHERE STORMS FORM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS TODAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 MPH.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE THE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

MANY RECORDS WERE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN ON WED...WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS EVER SEEN AT SOME LOCATIONS SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT.
LUCKILY...A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE AS VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...ADDED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE LEVELS SEEN ON WED.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TO OVER 100 DEGREES
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 110 WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AR RIVER VALLEY REGION FROM LITTLE
ROCK AND POINTS WEST. OTHER AREAS WITH TEMPS NEAR 110 WILL BE ACROSS
FAR WRN AND SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE REGION THAT HAS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPTS LIKELY TO
DROP INTO THE 60S...EVEN SOME 50S POSSIBLE. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR EXCEED 115 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONGOING
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS WELL AS EXPANDING THE COVERAGE TO THE
ENTIRE CWA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE STATE...GENERALLY FROM NW AR
INTO EAST CENTRAL AR. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
EXTREME HEAT FLATTENS...AND BEGINS SHIFTING SLOWLY WEST. EVEN
SO...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 106-108
FRI...COOLING DOWN TO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 104 BY SUN. HAVE
EXTENDED HEAT ADV THROUGH SUN EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR PORTION OF THE CWA FOR FRI. KEEP
MENTION OF POPS ACROSS AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...WHICH WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH. READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL NOT BE A HOT AS
EXPERIENCED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  79  97  79 /  30  30  30  20
CAMDEN AR        110  81 107  81 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       95  76 100  76 /  70  30  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR   107  81 106  81 /  30  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR 106  82 104  80 /  40  40  20  10
MONTICELLO AR    106  82 106  81 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR     106  79 106  79 /  30  40  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  77  98  77 /  60  30  30  20
NEWPORT AR        99  79  97  79 /  30  30  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR    108  82 105  81 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR  104  80 106  80 /  60  40  20  10
SEARCY AR        102  80 101  79 /  40  40  30  20
STUTTGART AR     105  80 103  79 /  40  40  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

UPDATE...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TODAY...BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 100 TO 110
DEGREES...AND WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN PLACES. THESE READINGS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE VERY DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM 110 TO 120 DEGREES.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. THIS WILL BE ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR...AND PEOPLE NEED TO TAKE THE HEAT
SERIOUSLY. HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN THE
UNITED STATES.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 70 MPH...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECEDING THE FRONT...IT WILL REMAIN HOT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE SO
HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AWAY FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...OR IN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W QUITMAN             35.38N 92.23W
08/03/2011                   CLEBURNE           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE 800 AND 900 BLOCKS OF ARKANSAS 124
            ABOUT 1.5 MILES WEST OF QUITMAN. EIGHT HOUSES HAD ROOF
            DAMAGE. EIGHT SHEDS...THREE BARNS...AND TWO SHOP
            BUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED.

&&

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
948 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ARZ023-031-032-041535-
CONWAY AR-FAULKNER AR-VAN BUREN AR-
948 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN VAN BUREN...NORTHERN
FAULKNER AND NORTHEASTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 943 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MONEY MTN...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREERS FERRY LAKE...  WHIPPLE...            TWIN GROVES...
  MIDDLETON...          FAIRFIELD BAY MARINA...
  FAIRBANKS...          DAMASCUS...           CLAUDE...
  CHOCTAW REC AREA...   CHOCTAW...            CATHOLIC POINT...
  SOUTHSIDE...          MORGANTON...          FORMOSA...
  CULPEPPER...          CENTER RIDGE...       BEVERAGE TOWN...
  BEE BRANCH...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3563 9227 3535 9227 3530 9264 3546 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 1448Z 248DEG 19KT 3541 9255

/44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1008 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SSW DOWNTOWN LITTLE  34.60N 92.30W
08/03/2011                   PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE
            PULASKI/SALINE COUNTY LINE IN THE SHANNON HILLS AREA.

&&

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1013 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ARZ022-031-041545-
CONWAY AR-POPE AR-
1013 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND CENTRAL
CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

AT 1012 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF CARGILE LAKE...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MORRILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MORRILTON...          ST. VINCENT...        SOLGOHACHIA...
  LANTY...              HILL CREEK...         HATTIEVILLE...
  HAPPY BEND...         BLICK...              WONDERVIEW...
  OVERCUP...            KENWOOD...            ECONOMY...
  BLACKWELL...          WILDCAT MTN...        WESLEY CHAPEL...
  SPRING MEADOWS...     OLD HICKORY...        NORTHVIEW SUBDVN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 94 AND 112.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3541 9268 3518 9258 3511 9286 3527 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1514Z 246DEG 13KT 3523 9280

/44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POUGHKEEPSIE            36.08N 91.48W
08/03/2011                   SHARP              AR   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED THAT MAJOR ROOF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
            OCCURED INCLUDING ROOFING BEING PEELED OFF OF HOUSES AND
            SHEDS. SEVERAL SHEDS WERE LIFTED OFF THEIR FOUNDATION AND
            THROWN INTO FENCES. CHICKEN HOUSE WAS NEARLY DESTRYOED BY
            STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. POWER POLES AND LIGHT POLES WERE
            SNAPPED IN HALF AS WELL AS TREES BEING UPROOTED.

&&

227

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1213 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ARZ005-006-014-015-041800-
BAXTER AR-FULTON AR-IZARD AR-STONE AR-
1213 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN STONE...NORTHERN
IZARD...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND EASTERN BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM
CDT...

AT 1210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LUKA...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN
HOME...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WIDEMAN...            SALEM ARPT...         RODNEY...
  PINEVILLE...          OXFORD...             NORFORK DAM...
  CALICO ROCK...        BYRON...              BEXAR...
  WISEMAN...            WILD CHERRY...        WHEELING...
  VIOLET HILL...        UNION...              MITCHELL...
  LARKIN...             JORDAN...             DOLPH...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3640 9183 3612 9176 3610 9221 3628 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 257DEG 18KT 3621 9212

/44