Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF HIGH
CLOUDS/SOME MIDDECK TODAY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING BETWEEN 5000 AND
6000 FEET. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.

A FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER TONIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTSIDE OF WHERE STORMS FORM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS TODAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 MPH.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE THE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

MANY RECORDS WERE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN ON WED...WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPS EVER SEEN AT SOME LOCATIONS SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT.
LUCKILY...A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE AS VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE...ADDED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE LEVELS SEEN ON WED.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TO OVER 100 DEGREES
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 110 WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AR RIVER VALLEY REGION FROM LITTLE
ROCK AND POINTS WEST. OTHER AREAS WITH TEMPS NEAR 110 WILL BE ACROSS
FAR WRN AND SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS THE REGION THAT HAS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPTS LIKELY TO
DROP INTO THE 60S...EVEN SOME 50S POSSIBLE. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR EXCEED 115 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONGOING
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS WELL AS EXPANDING THE COVERAGE TO THE
ENTIRE CWA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE STATE...GENERALLY FROM NW AR
INTO EAST CENTRAL AR. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
EXTREME HEAT FLATTENS...AND BEGINS SHIFTING SLOWLY WEST. EVEN
SO...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 106-108
FRI...COOLING DOWN TO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 104 BY SUN. HAVE
EXTENDED HEAT ADV THROUGH SUN EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR PORTION OF THE CWA FOR FRI. KEEP
MENTION OF POPS ACROSS AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...WHICH WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH. READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL NOT BE A HOT AS
EXPERIENCED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR    100  79  97  79 /  20  30  30  20
CAMDEN AR        109  81 107  81 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR      106  76 100  76 /  30  30  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR   108  81 106  81 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR 109  82 104  80 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR    105  82 106  81 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR     107  79 106  79 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 103  77  98  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWPORT AR        99  79  97  79 /  20  30  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR    108  82 105  81 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR  112  80 106  80 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR        103  80 101  79 /  20  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR     106  80 103  79 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TODAY...BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 100 TO 110
DEGREES...AND WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN PLACES. THESE READINGS
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE VERY DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM 110 TO 120 DEGREES.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. THIS WILL BE ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR...AND PEOPLE NEED TO TAKE THE HEAT
SERIOUSLY. HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN THE
UNITED STATES.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 70 MPH...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY
MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECEDING THE FRONT...IT WILL REMAIN HOT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE SO
HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AWAY FROM HIGH PRESSURE.

SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...OR IN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
841 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MCCRORY             35.21N 91.20W
08/04/2011                   WOODRUFF           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER POLES WERE DOWN. SOME TREES HAD TO BE CUT
            OUT OF THE ROAD.

&&

227

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
848 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ARZ022-031-038-039-041430-
CONWAY AR-PERRY AR-POPE AR-YELL AR-
848 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN YELL...EXTREME SOUTHERN
POPE...NORTHERN PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM
CDT...

AT 844 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR NEW NEELY...OR
13 MILES SOUTH OF RUSSELLVILLE.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING...HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING OVER
THESE SAME AREAS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PETIT JEAN MTN...     CARDEN BOTTOMS...     HOMEWOOD...
  CASA...               SWEEDEN ISLAND PARK...
  ROSE LAKE...          ROOSEVELT LAKE...     PULLEN POND...
  PETIT JEAN PARK ARPT...                     NEW NEELY...
  LAKE LUCY...          LAKE JEANNETTE...     LAKE GEORGE...
  LAKE ELISE...         WINROCK...            LAKE AMANDA...
  LAKE ABBY...          HOLLA BEND WILDLIFE REFUGE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3518 9306 3518 9288 3497 9301 3507 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1345Z 257DEG 1KT 3510 9308

BJS