Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
105 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL CONT TO FORM THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS
ACRS MAINLY CNTRL AND NRN AR. VFR/MVFR CIGS WL CONT TO LOWER THRU
THE MRNG HRS. NRN AR WL SEE IFR CONDS DVLP OVR THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDS FURTHER S LATER THIS MRNG. PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE MRNG...WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG DVLPG THIS AFTN IN THE N. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONT HAS SAGGED A BIT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS
AND REMAINS ALONG THE ARKLA BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BEGUN SEEING SOME HIGHER
RETURNS ON RADAR. PINE BLUFF HAS REPORTED SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN MONROE COUNTY. STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME
DEVELOPMENT AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS COMPLETELY...BUT
ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

AS A RESULT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HRRR STILL SHOWS
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR EAST OF LITTLE ROCK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING THIS TREND.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
100 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. THE BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE
CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE A LOWER
THREAT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF ARKANSAS.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP ARKANSAS IN A SOMEWHAT COOL AIRMASS...LIMITING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTER GROUPS ARE ASKED
TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44/59

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ARZ012-013-021>023-260805-
JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-POPE AR-SEARCY AR-VAN BUREN AR-
218 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN POPE...SOUTHERN NEWTON AND
WESTERN SEARCY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF FORT DOUGLAS...OR 8 MILES WEST
OF SAND GAP...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SAND GAP...           WITTS SPRING...       WALNUT...
  SMYRNA...             ROSETTA...            POINT PETER...
  MOORE...              MINERAL SPGS REC AREA...
  MARSENA...            IMO...                EULA...
  DILLEN...             BOHANNON...           BERTHA...
  TILLY...              SNOWBALL...           PELSOR...
  NAIL...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3600 9279 3567 9267 3561 9338 3582 9342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 259DEG 40KT 3573 9321

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ARZ021-260805-
JOHNSON AR-
236 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 300
AM CDT...

AT 236 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITE OAK...OR 7 MILES EAST
OF OZARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOODLAND...           LUDWIG LAKE...        HORSEHEAD LAKE...
  UNION CITY...         OZONE...              HUNT...
  HILLCREST...          HARMONY...            COAL HILL...
  WHITE OAK...          TURKEY MTN...         THOMPSON KNOB...
  SHADY GROVE...        RED LICK MTN...       OZONE REC AREA...
  MCCRAKEN HILLS...     MAC WOOD MTN...       KATIE KNOB...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 57.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3551 9370 3562 9370 3563 9370 3570 9340
      3548 9332 3543 9371 3550 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 258DEG 29KT 3553 9370

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ARZ012>014-021>024-030-031-038-260845-
CLEBURNE AR-CONWAY AR-JOHNSON AR-LOGAN AR-NEWTON AR-POPE AR-SEARCY
AR-STONE AR-VAN BUREN AR-YELL AR-
258 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VAN BUREN...SOUTHERN JOHNSON...
POPE...NORTHERN CLEBURNE...NORTHERN CONWAY...SOUTHWESTERN STONE...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...EXTREME NORTHERN
YELL AND SOUTHERN SEARCY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 258 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WATTS TO 2
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREEMAN SPRINGS TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF OZARK...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAKE DARDANELLE...    GREERS FERRY LAKE...  FAIRFIELD BAY...
  CLINTON...            CLARKSVILLE...        WOOLUM...
  WOODLAND...           WITTS SPRING...       WHIPPLE...
  WATTS...              TOKALON...            TARAL...
  SPADRA...             SOLO...               SMYRNA...
  SHIRLEY...            ROCKY HILL...         PINEY BAY REC AREA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 82.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3563 9183 3541 9240 3528 9323 3543 9371
      3558 9370 3566 9318 3588 9261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 292DEG 37KT 3580 9258 3562 9305
          3550 9377

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
301 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ARZ016-025-033-034-260845-
INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-WHITE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
301 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WHITE...
EXTREME NORTHERN WOODRUFF...SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE AND CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 301 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAILEY...OR 15 MILES NORTH
OF AUGUSTA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWPORT...            GRUBBS...             ALGOA...
  WELDON...             THIDA...              STEGALL...
  SHOFFNER...           POSSUM GRAPE...       OLYPHANT...
  INGLESIDE...          HEFFINGTON...         HALE...
  ERWIN...              BRADFORD...           BLACKVILLE...
  BALCH...              AMAGON...             SPRIGGS MILL...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3547 9104 3539 9150 3556 9156 3570 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 255DEG 36KT 3550 9142

44