Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING NEAR THE
AR/LA BORDER...STRETCHING NW INTO PORTIONS OF SE OK. TEMPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING REMAINING COOL...WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN AR...AND DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. SCT
SHRA/TSRA ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AR...WITH MAINLY
SMALL HAIL THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
NATURE. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG A MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR THE 850-800 MB...EVIDENT FROM ANALYSIS OF THE
300K ISENTROPIC SFC OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT.
ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

DO EXPECT THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HRS AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING. BY LATE
THIS MORNING HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK/SW MO AND MOVE EAST AND SE
INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED
BEING WELL NORTH OF THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SRN AR. THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WX THREAT ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF AR WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...AND POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING ACTIVITY.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING ACROSS MO. HOWEVER...SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SFC LOW PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE
WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR AS MUCH HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH WITH MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC BASED STORMS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AN INCREASED WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT BEST LOW LEVEL 0-1KM SHR WILL BE IN VICINITY
OF WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING SFC LOW. THIS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE EXTREME SRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NRN AR OZARKS WILL SEE
LOWS DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING BY SUN MORNING...SO WILL PROBABLY
POST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NRN COUNTIES. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT COOLING...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE CAA
MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND WIND.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON...BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE POPS ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUE AS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX
AND MOVE EAST OVER AR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE...SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE SVR. AT THIS TIME....LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS STRENGTHENING CYCLONE...WITH MANY OF
THE INGREDIENTS POSSIBLY COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX
EVENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES REMAIN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW WL CONT ACRS THE REGION DURG THE PD. THE MAIN
FCST CONCERN WL CONT TO BE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
TIMING OF EACH SYS DURG THE PD. THE ECMWF IS STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER
WITH TIMING VS THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. PLAN TO STAY ON THE SIDE
OF CONSISTENT AT THIS POINT AND WL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

ONE STORM SYS WL BE DEPARTING TO THE E OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
PD...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVG INTO THE MID SOUTH. THE NEXT
STORM SYS WL QUICKLY APCH THE FA FM THE NW WED NGT AND THU. BROUGHT
SMALL RAIN CHCS INTO WRN AR WED NGT AND A CHC AREAWIDE BY THU. DRIER
CONDS WL RETURN ONCE AGAIN LATE THU NGT AND FRI AS HIGH PRES BLDS
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WL GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO OR SLGTLY BLW NORMAL
LVLS THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  37  51  35 /  80  30  10  20
CAMDEN AR         77  44  57  43 /  40  40  10  20
HARRISON AR       43  33  49  32 /  80  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  41  55  40 /  50  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  41  53  40 /  60  30  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  44  57  43 /  50  50  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  40  54  39 /  50  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  33  50  32 /  80  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        48  38  50  36 /  70  40  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     62  42  55  42 /  50  40  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  39  54  37 /  70  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         49  40  51  37 /  70  30  10  20
STUTTGART AR      55  41  52  40 /  60  40  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...44

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