Severe Thunderstorm Warning 882, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
840 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO ADD IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN BOONE COUNTY. HOWEVER...SINCE ADDING THAT
INTO THE FORECAST VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP IN BOONE COUNTY AND
DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN AREAS OF BAXTER AND
PRESUMABLY WESTERN FULTON COUNTY. GIVEN THE LIKELY SHORT-LIVED
NATURE OF THIS DENSE FOG...DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE NORTH. THAT SHOULD COVER THINGS NICELY AND WILL FORGO
ISSUING ANY FOG RELATED ADVISORIES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY DO SO.
OVERNIGHT POP GRIDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CURRENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS BEING WHAT THEY ARE.

OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011/

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AR THIS EVENING...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN AR WHICH IS
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY LIGHTER
RAIN...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS NORTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH NORTH
OF COLD FRONT...WHILE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME WIND SHEAR EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT OVER AR AND
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACTIVE WEATHER PROSPECTS CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR NORTHERN/WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
IN NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES
GENERALLY NORTH OF MURFREESBORO...SHERIDAN...AND BRINKLEY. FOR
THIS REASON WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. ANY LARGE-SCALE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AREN/T LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD CURTAIL
THE SEVERE THREAT. NOT ONLY THAT...WITH THE WAVE TONIGHT EXPECTING
TO REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER SUNSET...THE SITUATION WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE MORE QUICKLY INTO THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL
SCENARIO.

WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH READINGS COOLING DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
LOW PRESSURE DRAGS THE FRONT NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...
ALBEIT BRIEFLY.

LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE STATE ON FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE STATE LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN IN THE TIMING
OF THIS NEXT FRONT AS THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKER SOLUTION VERSES
THE ECMWF. WITH BOTH SCENARIOS...AR COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WELL AS MAYBE SOME STRONG STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

MORE UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE SRN CONUS. THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ONCE IT CLOSES OFF IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME...EVEN IF THE UPPER LOW
DOES ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF. MUCH COLDER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
IN VICINITY OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING OVER TIME. IF THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE STATE...WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE
SEEN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING MUCH LONGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  55  67  59 /  40  80  90  90
CAMDEN AR         80  66  80  65 /  50  60  50  80
HARRISON AR       57  47  62  53 /  40  70  90  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  64  73  64 /  50  90  80  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  65  75  63 /  40  80  80  80
MONTICELLO AR     76  65  77  66 /  40  50  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      78  60  71  64 /  50  90  90  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  48  64  55 /  40  70  90  90
NEWPORT AR        70  60  68  62 /  40  80  80  90
PINE BLUFF AR     74  65  77  63 /  40  60  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  59  70  59 /  40  90  90  90
SEARCY AR         74  63  68  58 /  40  80  80  80
STUTTGART AR      75  65  74  62 /  40  80  70  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
600 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA...SCATTERED TO AT TIMES MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME
STRONG TO  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR EXPECTED. THE OVERALL THREAT WILL LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY
THIS WEEK...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY OF THE
SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK
COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE ARKANSAS...WHITE...
BLACK...BUFFALO AND CACHE RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY DUE TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING.

THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO PERSIST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL THOSE AFTERNOONS
COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF ANY
WATCHES ARE ISSUED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/62/59

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