Flash Flood Warning 133, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. THE FRONT IS MAINLY FROM TEXARKANA
TO BRINKLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING TO THE GOING
PACKAGE AS UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM BLYTHVILLE TO RUSSELLVILLE TO
JUST SOUTH OF DEQUEEN. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND IS RUNNING INTO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. SOME MODELS INDICATING BOUNDARY MAY ACTUALLY RETREAT BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS IN DECENT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED
THIS MORNING.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL SHOWS DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH SITING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROUGH
THEN EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
BY THE END OF TUESDAY...KICKING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT
BEFORE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS EXPECTED
WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES UNTIL FROPA.

ONE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS....MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION LATER THIS MORNING UNTIL
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...
DEEPENING AS IT DOES...REACHING FORT SMITH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY TUESDAY MORNING.

STILL LOOKING AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO FIVE
INCHES GENERALLY NORTH OF MURFREESBORO...SHERIDAN...AND BRINKLEY.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING
SIX INCHES. CURRENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.

SEVERE THREAT STILL CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME BUT BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE TONIGHT AS FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH AND
SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING GOING.
INSTABILITY STILL LACKING BUT WIND PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN BOW TYPE SEGMENTS.

SYSTEM LOOKS TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY MID DAY
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT. HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL
BE WANING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS COOLING DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLEST DAY
WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING FROM THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AND
SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE STATE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT AT ALL WITH THE EXITING OF THIS SYSTEM SO THIS COULD
CHANGE AS THEY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING PER GFS SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  58  65  42 /  90 100  80  10
CAMDEN AR         77  64  74  46 /  60  70  80  10
HARRISON AR       59  53  57  39 /  90 100  50  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  62  68  44 /  80  90  70  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  62  70  44 /  80  90  80  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  64  76  47 /  50  70  80  20
MOUNT IDA AR      70  60  66  42 /  90  90  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  55  60  41 /  90 100  60  10
NEWPORT AR        66  60  67  43 /  90  90  90  20
PINE BLUFF AR     75  64  73  46 /  60  80  80  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  58  63  41 /  90 100  60  10
SEARCY AR         69  60  68  43 /  80  90  80  20
STUTTGART AR      74  63  71  45 /  70  80  80  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
ARKANSAS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM TEXARKANA
TO NEAR JONESBORO. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY THEN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN
WILL AGAIN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY OF THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL SEE
MORE RAIN TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS...WHITE...BLACK...BUFFALO AND CACHE RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY DUE TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF RIVER
FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY
THAT WILL TAKE IT EAST OF ARKANSAS. ANOTHER ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE.

THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO PERSIST TUESDAY AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD EXIST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

ARZ043>046-210950-
LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
307 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SALINE...CENTRAL
PULASKI...WESTERN PRAIRIE AND NORTHERN LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM
CST...

AT 306 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES EAST OF WAKEFIELD VILLAGE...OR NEAR
LITTLE ROCK ARPT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SW LITTLE ROCK...     NORTH LITTLE ROCK...  LONOKE...
  DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK ARPT...   THURMAN...
  SWEET HOME...         SOUTH BEND...         SISEMORE...
  SCOTT...              PROTHRO JUNCTION...   PRAIRIE CENTER...
  METO...               MCCREANOR...          MCALMONT...
  MABELVALE...          LAKEWOOD...           IRONTON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 130 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 152 AND 192.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3503 9166 3480 9158 3458 9241 3474 9239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0907Z 247DEG 40KT 3470 9228

51