Severe Thunderstorm Warning 871, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PRETTY THICK AHEAD OF IT...WHICH HAS ACTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
AND WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INITIATE SOME TIME IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE DELTA REGION. EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE AREA
DESTABILIZES.

GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM INITIATION
THROUGH ABOUT 9PM-MIDNIGHT...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PICK UP
MOMENTUM AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT WOBBLES AROUND NORTH LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND SEVERAL UPPER WAVES INTERACT WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY WASH OUT.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN. WITH MODELS
BEING ON THE SAME PAGE...WILL SIMPLY USE A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WITH A
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

STUBBORN UPPER LOW WHICH HAD TAKEN RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES OF LATE FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. RESULT OF THIS SECOND WAVE IS TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH SUBSEQUENT RIDGING OVER
OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

AS PATTERN UNFOLDS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
IN THE LATE THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME. FRONT IS RATHER
WEAK AND DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL SIMPLY BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAV/MEX
NUMBERS LOOKING GOOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  73  51  80 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  82  57  86 /  30  10  30  20
HARRISON AR       46  72  50  78 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  79  54  84 /  20  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  78  57  83 /  30  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     59  78  57  85 /  60  10  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      51  81  51  85 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  72  50  79 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        49  73  51  80 /  40  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  77  55  84 /  50  10  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  78  51  83 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         52  75  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      54  75  56  81 /  50  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-MONROE-OUACHITA.

&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
800 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE. THE AREA THAT
IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A MOUNT IDA TO MORRILTON TO BATESVILLE LINE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
LATE THIS EVENING TAKING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY...
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA STATE
LINE. ON TUESDAY THE STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AND AGAIN
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH SMALL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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