Severe Thunderstorm Warning 729, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WAS ALSO THE STORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPS OVER 100 BY NOON. THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH
OF THE STATE WAS SEEING UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S...AND DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION HOWEVER IS SOME OF THE NRN
COUNTIES WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FROM EARLY MORNING PRECIP HAS
KEPT TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. THE ONGOING SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH SOME STRONG...MAYBE SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
PERSISTENT...AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES PARKED OVERHEAD. UPPER 90S...TO LOW 100S WILL BE
LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH WED POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST AS WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTH TO SWRLY. DRIER AIR FROM THE SW...COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS EASILY WARMING TO 100
OR MORE AT MOST LOCATIONS WED AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE OZARKS MAY REMAIN IN THE 90S HOWEVER. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
TEMPS AROUND 105..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW AND ALONG THE AR
RIVER VALLEY REGION WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
REMAIN HIGH...WITH MAINLY MID 70S TO LOW 80S SEEN. HEAT INDICES WILL
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY HIGH...WITH 105-115 LIKELY. SO HAVE DECIDED TO
EXTEND HEAT ADV THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING...THOUGH AN EXTENSION
LATER IN THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT POPS TO
REMAIN LOW WITH THIS RIDGE...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HRS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH VERY HOT AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN ARKANSAS. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES NECESSARY.

THE HIGH WILL BE LEAST DOMINANT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
TOWARD THE ROCKIES. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL NOT BE QUITE SO HOT
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL PAN
OUT...BUT WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  99  74 100 /  20  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         75 102  78 103 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  99  74 100 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77 101  78 103 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77 102  77 103 /  20  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     75  99  76 101 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      75 102  77 102 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  99  74 101 /  20  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        75  99  73 100 /  20  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  99  77 102 /  20  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77 103  77 104 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         76  99  76 100 /  20  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      76  98  77 100 /  20  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

ARZ037-038-041-312045-
MONTGOMERY AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL...EASTERN SCOTT
AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF LITTLE TEXAS...OR 19 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DANVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MUDDY CREEK WMA...    UNION HILL...         OLIO...
  NOLA...               HARVEY...             GRAVELLY...
  CHULA...              BLUFFTON...           BLUE BALL...
  LITTLE TEXAS...       FREEDOM MTN...        DUTCH CREEK MTN...
  CALLAHAN KNOB...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3469 9374 3494 9386 3499 9364 3480 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 073DEG 5KT 3487 9364

64

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

ARZ012-021-312115-
JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JOHNSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAXTON KNOB...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JASPER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALNUT...             ROSETTA...            DEVILS KNOB...
  WAYTON...             SWAIN...              SALUS...
  NAIL...               MOSSVILLE...          FALLSVILLE...
  DEER...               CROSSROAD...          COWELL...
  ARBAUGH...            TAYLOR MTN...         PLEASANT HILL...
  PAXTON KNOB...        NATURAL BRIDGE...     MURRAY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3583 9313 3567 9336 3578 9352 3583 9353
      3596 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 050DEG 5KT 3584 9329

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

ARZ041-052-053-312120-
CLARK AR-MONTGOMERY AR-PIKE AR-
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN
PIKE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEGRAY DAM...OR NEAR DEGRAY LAKE.  THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEGUR...              NORMAN...             GLENWOOD...
  GAP MTN...            DAISY...              DAISY SP...
  WELSH...              ROSBORO...            LODI...
  KIRBY...              HOPPER...             FANCYHILL...
  CADDO GAP...          BLACK SPRINGS...      WYLIE PICNIC AREA...
  TWEEDLE MTN...        STRAWN MTN...         SHARP TOP MTN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3414 9353 3426 9387 3450 9366 3440 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 180DEG 0KT 3421 9312

227