Severe Thunderstorm Warning 623, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTH ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. OUTFLOW IS NOTED MOVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE STORMS. THIS...ALONG WITH OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COULD
INITIATE STORMS IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AT THE OTHER SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWS A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS...WITH SEVERAL WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOUCHING OFF
SHOWERS/STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE INVOF
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE CONTRACTING TODAY...ALLOWING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GAIN MOMENTUM AND MOVE FURTHER INTO THE STATE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME
STRONG/SEVERE...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...HOWEVER...IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL START TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS YET AGAIN.
ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WEST ON MONDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING NORTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. A FRONT WILL BE
STATIONARY IN MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT WILL SAG CLOSE TO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY AND A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY
BUT INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IF ANY HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED...THEY WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     90  68  90  68 /  50  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         98  73  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       88  70  91  71 /  60  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    97  75  96  75 /  30  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  98  75  94  74 /  30  30  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     98  75  96  75 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      97  71  96  71 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  68  91  69 /  60  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        92  69  91  69 /  50  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     97  74  94  74 /  30  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  72  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         94  73  91  70 /  40  30  20  10
STUTTGART AR      97  75  92  72 /  30  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 100S SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY
AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN NORTH ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS
AND SOME WILL BECOME SEVERE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR NORTH ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER RETURNING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION.

EACH DAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 90S...WITH LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES AT
NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
HEAT INDEX READINGS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 105 DEGREES. LATER IN THE WEEK...A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 110.

DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...PEOPLE SHOULD OBSERVE HEAT SAFETY
RULES. IF POSSIBLE...LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY TO THE EARLY MORNING OR
THE EVENING HOURS. IF YOU MUST WORK OUTSIDE...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS...
WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING...AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

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