Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.AVIATION...

00Z/24 AVIATION PACKAGE...

OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH
PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...IT SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE SAME POSITION
THIS TIME TOMORROW. WITH THAT BEING THE CASE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD... WITH
IFR OR LOW IFR AT HRO AND BPK.

OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT PRECIP IN
TONIGHT. MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...
AND WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
PUT IN PROB30S FROM 18-00Z AT HOT AND LIT TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OVER THE SOUTHERN SITES...ONLY ISSUE OF SIGNIFICANCE IS LIKELY TO
BE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY. LEFT
PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF PBF AND LLQ AT THIS TIME.

TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SCTD CONVECTION STILL LINGERING ACRS NRN AR AT MID AFTN. ACTIVITY WL
CONT TO DIMINISH FM THE W THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AS UPR IMPULSE
LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. ASSOCD SFC BNDRY HAD SHIFTED INTO NRN
AR...WITH A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BNDRY NOTED FURTHER TO THE SE.

NOT TOO MANY CHGS IN THE OVERALL FCST THRU THE SHRT TERM AS
UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BNDRY WL CONT TO
MEANDER ACRS NRN AR/SRN MO THRU SUN. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WL DVLP
AND AFFECT LOCATIONS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FNT...WITH A CONTD THREAT
OF STRONG/SVR STORMS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. FF WATCH RMNS
IN EFFECT THRU EARLY MON ATTM...WITH AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND
LOCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...A NEW STORM SYS WL
ORGANIZE TO OUR W AND MOVE THRU THE REGION. THIS WL FINALLY ALLOW
THE FNTL BNDRY TO MAKE A PUSH THRU AR. HOWEVER...THE FNT WL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE MON INTO TUE...
WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXPANDING OVR THE REGION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.

THE FNT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT E OF AR ON TUE...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. OPTED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR TUE DUE
TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. YET ANOTHER DVLP STORM SYS WL
APCH THE REGION STARTING TUE NGT...WITH BETTER RAIN CHCS RETURNING
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG TERM STARTS WITH POTENT STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION TO THE
EAST WED AFTERNOON...WITH POPS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR NRN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION THU INTO FRI...WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PASS OVER SRN MO...WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT
POPS AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FRI INTO
SAT...WITH SRLY SFC FLOW RETURNING TO THE STATE. HAVE POPS
INCREASING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE STATE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-
IZARD-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.
&&

AVIATION...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
256 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
TWO THIRDS OF ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS TO BE EXPECTED WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH...BUT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. THIS COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
AND WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THIS
SCENARIO BEARS MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER TIME. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE AREAS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ARZ003-004-232030-
BOONE AR-MARION AR-
243 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND BOONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREEN FOREST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HARRISON...           WININGTON...          WILLIS...
  SELF...               ROBERSON HOLLOW...    RED BANK...
  OZARK ISLE...         OMAHA...              MYRTLE...
  LEAD HILL...          LAKEWAY...            DODD CITY...
  DIAMOND CITY...       CLARK HILL...         CAPPS...
  BERGMAN...            ZINC...               SOUTH LEAD HILL...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3637 9259 3614 9329 3615 9330 3649 9331
      3650 9330 3650 9267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 244DEG 39KT 3626 9335

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ARZ003-004-232045-
BOONE AR-MARION AR-
330 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND
NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUGARLOAF KNOB...OR 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF YELLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WININGTON...          PRICE PLACE...        LEAD HILL...
  DIAMOND CITY...       SOUTH LEAD HILL...    PEEL...
  TUCKER HOLLOW PARK... SYCAMORE...           SUGARLOAF KNOB...
  SHORT MTN...          PILOT KNOB...         JONES PT WMA...
  HWY 125 PARK...       BUCK CREEK PARK...

LAT...LON 3650 9254 3633 9294 3649 9303 3651 9301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 249DEG 36KT 3647 9283

57