Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE HERE AS THINGS ARE GETTING BUSY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG...AND LATCH ONTO...THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO.

OTHERWISE...THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO TWEAK DEWPOINTS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO TO ADJUST LATE PERIOD QPF GRIDS TO BETTER
MATCH UP TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

AVIATION...

00Z/24 AVIATION PACKAGE...

OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH
PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...IT SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE SAME POSITION
THIS TIME TOMORROW. WITH THAT BEING THE CASE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD... WITH
IFR OR LOW IFR AT HRO AND BPK.

OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT PRECIP IN
TONIGHT. MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...
AND WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
PUT IN PROB30S FROM 18-00Z AT HOT AND LIT TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OVER THE SOUTHERN SITES...ONLY ISSUE OF SIGNIFICANCE IS LIKELY TO
BE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY. LEFT
PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF PBF AND LLQ AT THIS TIME.

TAFS ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SCTD CONVECTION STILL LINGERING ACRS NRN AR AT MID AFTN. ACTIVITY WL
CONT TO DIMINISH FM THE W THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AS UPR IMPULSE
LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. ASSOCD SFC BNDRY HAD SHIFTED INTO NRN
AR...WITH A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BNDRY NOTED FURTHER TO THE SE.

NOT TOO MANY CHGS IN THE OVERALL FCST THRU THE SHRT TERM AS
UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BNDRY WL CONT TO
MEANDER ACRS NRN AR/SRN MO THRU SUN. PERIODS OF CONVECTION WL DVLP
AND AFFECT LOCATIONS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FNT...WITH A CONTD THREAT
OF STRONG/SVR STORMS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. FF WATCH RMNS
IN EFFECT THRU EARLY MON ATTM...WITH AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND
LOCATION ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...A NEW STORM SYS WL
ORGANIZE TO OUR W AND MOVE THRU THE REGION. THIS WL FINALLY ALLOW
THE FNTL BNDRY TO MAKE A PUSH THRU AR. HOWEVER...THE FNT WL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO THE ENTIRE STATE BY LATE MON INTO TUE...
WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXPANDING OVR THE REGION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.

THE FNT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT E OF AR ON TUE...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. OPTED TO LEAVE CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR TUE DUE
TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. YET ANOTHER DVLP STORM SYS WL
APCH THE REGION STARTING TUE NGT...WITH BETTER RAIN CHCS RETURNING
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG TERM STARTS WITH POTENT STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION TO THE
EAST WED AFTERNOON...WITH POPS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR NRN COUNTIES
WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION THU INTO FRI...WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PASS OVER SRN MO...WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT
POPS AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FRI INTO
SAT...WITH SRLY SFC FLOW RETURNING TO THE STATE. HAVE POPS
INCREASING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  64  76  66 /  60  60  40  50
CAMDEN AR         85  68  86  68 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       63  55  72  63 /  90  90  80  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  67  82  68 /  20  20  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  66  83  68 /  20  20  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  67  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  67  79  66 /  40  40  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  57  72  62 /  90 100  80  70
NEWPORT AR        83  64  80  67 /  60  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  64  80  65 /  60  50  40  50
SEARCY AR         84  65  81  65 /  50  30  30  30
STUTTGART AR      86  65  85  67 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-
IZARD-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
256 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
TWO THIRDS OF ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS TO BE EXPECTED WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH...BUT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. THIS COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
AND WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THIS
SCENARIO BEARS MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER TIME. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE AREAS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NEAR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
908 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TORNADO          12 SSW JASPER           35.85N 93.27W
04/23/2011                   NEWTON             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TORNADO WAS REPORTED TO HAVE TOUCHED DOWN NEAR SMITH
            MOUNTAIN.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TORNADO          BASS                    35.88N 93.00W
04/23/2011                   NEWTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR BASS.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
916 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TORNADO          12 SSW JASPER           35.85N 93.27W
04/23/2011                   NEWTON             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TORNADO WAS REPORTED TO HAVE TOUCHED DOWN NEAR SMITH
            MOUNTAIN. THE ROAD AT SMITH MOUNTAIN IS BLOCKED BY FALLEN
            TREES.

&&

57

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