Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

BUSY AFTN ACRS THE FA DEALING WITH ELEVATED STORMS/HAILERS ACRS
MAINLY CNTRL AR. ACTIVITY OCCURRING WELL N OF THE SFC BNDRY THAT
WAS STALLED OUT ACRS NRN LA...AND BEING AIDED BY AN APCHG SHRTWV FM
THE W. STRONG/SVR STORMS WL CONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS...AS A
SVR TSTM WATCH RMNS IN EFFECT UNTIL 21/02Z.

UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL CONT ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL BEGIN LIFTING BACK SLOLY
NWD STARTING TNGT AND THU. BEST SHRA/TSRA CHCS WL ALSO SHIFT NWD
WITH THE FNT IN THE COMING DAYS. LOCATIONS TO THE S OF THE BNDRY WL
SEE A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDS...WITH JUST SLGT CHCS OF
CONVECTION.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE FNTL BNDRY
WL BE SITUATED NEAR THE AR/MO BRDR. A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES WL
CONT TO TRACK EWD THRU THE REGION...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL PDS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHCS WL CONT TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF THE
BNDRY...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN AR.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED JUST NW OF THE CWA AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINING
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT. WITH MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE
OVER THE REGION ABOVE THE FRONT...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN AND MON. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST POPS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE STATE...OR IN AREAS IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS STALLED FRONT. IF THIS FRONT STALLS FURTHER
SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD...BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS SCENARIO
WARRANTS FURTHER ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THIS
REGION OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER SOUTH
THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

BY TUE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS...WITH
THE STALLED FRONT LIFTING FURTHER NORTH...AND STRONGER SRLY SFC FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE TUE INTO WED...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF AR. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...FORECAST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
OVER SEVERAL DAYS...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS WITH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK
SYSTEM...AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COMING
DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
947 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
947 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY WILL STALL TODAY
NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTH ARKANSAS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
IN THE FORMATION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT IN LOUISIANA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A SETUP THAT COULD BRING A
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
STATE. DETAILS ABOUT THIS EVENT ARE NOT YET CLEAR...BUT THIS
SCENARIO BEARS MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER TIME. THE
AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
420 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ043>046-056-057-202205-
ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
420 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PRAIRIE...SOUTHERN
LONOKE...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...EXTREME EASTERN SALINE...NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 420 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WILLOW BEACH...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STUTTGART...          WRIGHTSVILLE...       TOLTEC MOUNDS SP...
  TERRY LOCK AND DAM... SWEET HOME...
  STUTTGART MUNI ARPT...                      SCOTT...
  PARKERS CORNER...     KEO...                IRONTON...
  HUMNOKE...            ESTES...              ENGLAND...
  BRUMMITT...           WOODSON...            TOMBERLIN...
  TOLTEC...             TOLLVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND 136.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3475 9149 3444 9150 3450 9222 3470 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 270DEG 34KT 3463 9203

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ041>043-054-202230-
GARLAND AR-HOT SPRING AR-MONTGOMERY AR-SALINE AR-
444 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SALINE...GARLAND...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF
IRONS FORK REC AREA TO NEAR MT MORIAH...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PINEY...              ROCKWELL...           LAKE OUACHITA...
  LAKE HAMILTON...      HOT SPRINGS...        MOUNTAIN PINE...
  MEYERS...             LOFTON...             LENA LNDG REC AREA...
  LAKE OUACHITA SP...   LAKE LAGO...          LAKE CORONADO...
  LAKE CATHERINE...     LAKE BALBOA...        JESSIEVILLE...
  HOT SPGS VILLAGE...   HOT SPRINGS NATL PARK...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3477 9290 3441 9289 3437 9346 3473 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 263DEG 33KT 3468 9328 3441 9332

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
504 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             SHERIDAN                34.31N 92.41W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
505 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             CADDO VALLEY            34.19N 93.07W
04/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       CLARK              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

58

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