Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE ON TUE NIGHT HAS STALLED
ACROSS THE LA/AR BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY EFFECTING THE
CENTRAL AND SRN SITES. NRN SITES WILL SEE THE VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS..BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND CIGS START TO DROP. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW
LEVEL STATUS WILL KEEP MVFR AND LOW LEVEL VFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTIONED SHRA AND TSRA FOR MOST SITES BY THU
MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS LIFTING BACK NORTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
BY THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH THE
FRONT...WITH WARM/HUMID AIR AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE FRONT PARKED...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION. IF
STORMS HAPPEN TO MAKE IT INTO THE STATE...THEY WILL MOSTLY AFFECT
AREAS NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND AT/BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
MONDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY.

A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND INTO
ARKANSAS TUESDAY. THIS IS GOING TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
COULD BRING POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAIN TO THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ARKANSAS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  49  66  59 /  10  40  50  30
CAMDEN AR         71  58  78  63 /  40  40  30  20
HARRISON AR       65  47  64  57 /  10  30  50  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  55  72  61 /  30  50  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  55  71  62 /  30  50  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  61  78  65 /  40  50  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      65  56  72  60 /  30  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  47  64  57 /  10  30  50  40
NEWPORT AR        68  50  68  60 /  10  40  50  30
PINE BLUFF AR     69  57  75  63 /  40  50  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  51  68  58 /  20  50  40  20
SEARCY AR         68  51  69  60 /  20  50  40  20
STUTTGART AR      68  55  73  62 /  30  50  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
947 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
947 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY WILL STALL TODAY
NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTH ARKANSAS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
IN THE FORMATION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT IN LOUISIANA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A SETUP THAT COULD BRING A
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
STATE. DETAILS ABOUT THIS EVENT ARE NOT YET CLEAR...BUT THIS
SCENARIO BEARS MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER TIME. THE
AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/62

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