Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE
NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH KICKS OUT. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB REVEALED
50 KTS OF WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8C/KM AND THIS WAS EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT HAD MADE IT COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE UPPER AIR SITE.

AS UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST...SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SEVERAL AREAS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FIRST OFF...TORNADO THREATS APPEAR TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WHERE BEST HELICITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG WITH
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EVEN WHERE THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH... EXPECTING A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A
CONCERN AS PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD
RAIN OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WAS RECEIVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
LAST NIGHT AND THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS.

PRECIPITATION ENDS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT WILL HOLD
ON TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH ALL POPS GONE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY...COOLER BUY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN AS NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

SOUTHWEST SYSTEM LIFTS OUT SUNDAY WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PASS
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS IS TIMING AS MODELS BRING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH AT NIGHT AND
MOVE IT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL READJUST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE
CONCERNED...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN ILLINOIS AND HEADED
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND ZONAL
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE DEVELOPS
SOME BUCKLING IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME RIDGING BEGINS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EAST ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI...AND COULD PROVIDE SOME
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. DECREASED THESE RAIN
CHANCES BUT LEFT THEM ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  47  34  62 /  90   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         44  56  37  69 /  80   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       33  47  33  62 /  60   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  53  36  67 /  70   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  51  35  66 /  80   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     46  55  37  69 /  90   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      39  54  36  67 /  60   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  47  33  62 /  70   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        39  47  34  63 /  90   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     44  53  36  68 /  90   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  50  34  65 /  60   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         39  48  34  64 /  90   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      42  50  35  66 /  90   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...51

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