Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Little Rock, AR

148 
WGUS74 KLZK 250059
FFSLZK

SEGMENTED

ZCZC LITFFSLZK DEF
TTAA00 KLZK 250059

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

ARC023-029-063-065-135-137-141-250114-
/O.EXP.KLZK.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110225T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHARP AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-STONE AR-CONWAY AR-CLEBURNE AR-VAN BUREN AR-
IZARD AR-
659 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
IZARD...VAN BUREN...CLEBURNE...NORTHEASTERN CONWAY...SOUTHERN
STONE...NORTHWESTERN INDEPENDENCE AND SHARP COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM CST...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3637 9127 3634 9127 3633 9126 3624 9126
      3623 9127 3624 9132 3622 9135 3590 9134
      3550 9182 3540 9276 3553 9273 3638 9129

$$

BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE
NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH KICKS OUT. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID EVENING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB REVEALED
50 KTS OF WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8C/KM AND THIS WAS EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT HAD MADE IT COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE UPPER AIR SITE.

AS UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST...SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SEVERAL AREAS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FIRST OFF...TORNADO THREATS APPEAR TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WHERE BEST HELICITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG WITH
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EVEN WHERE THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH... EXPECTING A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A
CONCERN AS PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD
RAIN OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WAS RECEIVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
LAST NIGHT AND THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS.

PRECIPITATION ENDS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT WILL HOLD
ON TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH ALL POPS GONE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY...COOLER BUY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN AS NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

SOUTHWEST SYSTEM LIFTS OUT SUNDAY WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PASS
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS IS TIMING AS MODELS BRING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH AT NIGHT AND
MOVE IT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL READJUST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE
CONCERNED...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN ILLINOIS AND HEADED
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND ZONAL
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE DEVELOPS
SOME BUCKLING IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME RIDGING BEGINS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EAST ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI...AND COULD PROVIDE SOME
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. DECREASED THESE RAIN
CHANCES BUT LEFT THEM ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  47  34  62 /  90   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         44  56  37  69 /  80   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       33  47  33  62 /  60   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  53  36  67 /  70   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  51  35  66 /  80   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     46  55  37  69 /  90   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      39  54  36  67 /  60   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  47  33  62 /  70   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        39  47  34  63 /  90   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     44  53  36  68 /  90   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  50  34  65 /  60   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         39  48  34  64 /  90   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      42  50  35  66 /  90   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251045-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PULLED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE ADVANCING SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS EXTEND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS ENOUGH CHANGE IN BOTH WIND
SPEED...AND WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS UNTIL 6 PM WITH A SEPARATE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL 10 PM.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH REGARD TO TIMING...STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THROUGH 6 PM...MAKING IT INTO THE EAST BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN ARKANSAS.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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