River Flood Warning 53, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF EAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
ARE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
PLAINS AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WILL BRING IN SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
QUITE A BIT OF ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS MORNING SO
LETS GET TO IT...

FIRST ISSUE IS THE FLOOD WATCH. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WESTERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES...AS PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF THERE FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WATCH...HAVE EXPIRED
IT AT 7...WHILE THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO GO
UNTIL THE 10 AM EXPIRATION TIME. WHILE THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS MARKEDLY DECREASED...MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED TWO TO
AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO ANY
ADDITIONAL MODERATE OR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD EASILY CAUSE ISSUES
AND DELAY RUNOFF.

BASICALLY...OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WAVES WILL KEEP MOVING UP
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MEAN FLOW. THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.

ERGO OUR NEXT ISSUE...SEVERE STORM CHANCES. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION GETS GOING OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS
DURING THE EVENING. INCREASING LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY...
HIGH MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ANY SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH BACKING SURFACE FLOW...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...LACK OF SPEED SHEAR WOULD PRECLUDE A THREAT OF LONG-
LIVED SUPERCELLS.

SOME STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
YET MORE WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TEND TO BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY.

AND...AS I/VE MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS...ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SLOW STORM MOTION. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
LAST 24 HOURS...SO AT THIS TIME...I DON/T EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES BEYOND THE CURRENT ONE.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...BUT IS NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE ONE AS MAXES AND MINS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY OBSERVED RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST CLIPPING NORTH ARKANSAS THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO HAVE A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND POPS WILL DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  65  82  67 /  50  40  40  30
CAMDEN AR         86  69  88  69 /  40  40  40  20
HARRISON AR       81  64  83  66 /  30  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  69  87  68 /  40  40  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  67  85  69 /  50  40  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     87  71  89  71 /  50  40  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  64  84  66 /  50  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        83  66  85  69 /  60  40  40  20
PINE BLUFF AR     86  70  88  68 /  50  40  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  65  85  67 /  40  40  40  30
SEARCY AR         85  65  84  67 /  60  40  40  20
STUTTGART AR      84  68  85  69 /  60  40  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
845 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE TIME. WHILE SOME STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THE MAIN THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

AREAS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OTHER AREAS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
HAVE RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS..FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...RIVER
FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. RIVERS HAVE CRESTED...
BUT THE WATER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE. SOME ROADS IN EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE REMAIN CLOSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF ARKANSAS. STORM SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN ARKANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE HIT AND MISS...
AND WILL COME IN BATCHES INSTEAD OF ALL AT ONCE. TWO TO FOUR
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES NEAREST THE STALLED FRONT. THIS WILL BE SPREAD
OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS REACHED EARLIER THIS MONTH.

IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GAIN SOME MOMENTUM TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER AIR.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH EXACTLY HOW THIS EVENT WILL PLAY
OUT...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. INDIVIDUALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON
RIVER LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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